{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17507df9-7eb2-4930-a471-7ce48b7e5da0", "symbol": "NC1", "name": "NICO Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.852, "architecture_energy": 83.685, "architecture_maturity": 36.223, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.98, "rotation_up": 22.33, "upward_expansion": 20.82, "deceleration": 37.66, "rotation_down": 65.08, "downward_expansion": 96.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.113833, 0.119545, 0.142714, 0.160527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.1125, "trend_reference": 0.190917, "distance_from_trend": -0.410738, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.167819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.329634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.528611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.476744, "excess_performance": -0.54045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.410738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.329634, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.753201, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.476744, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.109971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 348208, "relative_activity": 0.383625, "balance": 0.109971, "dry_up": 0.36723, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162393, "annualized_volatility": 0.846934, "from_high_reference": -0.71875, "from_low_reference": 0.323529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.190917, "fair_value_reference": 0.167819, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.054762, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.049347, "regime_survival": 0.961538, "best_return": 0.326531, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.194608, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.255153, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.346481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.391156, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.440843, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.466293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.393939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.377551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.287879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", 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0.1931, "fair_value": 0.174163, "relative_strength": -28.473822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.509701, "energy": 85.068205, "activity_lines": [ 0.123333, 0.134818, 0.158381, 0.176146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.115, "volume": 220201, "typical_volume": 1104561.6, "trend": 0.193667, "fair_value": 0.171958, "relative_strength": -28.306362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.480392, "energy": 81.072091, "activity_lines": [ 0.12, 0.128636, 0.152857, 0.171108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.11, "volume": 290618, "typical_volume": 1040910.1, "trend": 0.192833, "fair_value": 0.169784, "relative_strength": -32.913567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.35078, "energy": 80.661385, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.123273, 0.147429, 0.16571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1125, "volume": 348208, "typical_volume": 907677.55, "trend": 0.190917, "fair_value": 0.167819, "relative_strength": -33.528611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.85156, "energy": 83.685257, "activity_lines": [ 0.113833, 0.119545, 0.142714, 0.160527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }