{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1759892d-5f63-4efe-a530-9ebb06d8d4db", "symbol": "JKCEMENT", "name": "J.K. Cement Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.592, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.152, "architecture_energy": 10.755, "architecture_maturity": 12.355, "architecture_confidence": 74.576, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.66, "rotation_up": 37.58, "upward_expansion": 41.7, "deceleration": 42.95, "rotation_down": 27.09, "downward_expansion": 9.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 5453.4, 5432.205131, 5395.595173, 5391.413313 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5379.5, "trend_reference": 5426.672347, "distance_from_trend": -0.008693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4848.258296, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.479588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060021, "excess_performance": -0.016312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028502, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520554, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164061, "relative_activity": 0.588583, "balance": 0.520554, "dry_up": 1.339995, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061118, "annualized_volatility": 0.33309, "from_high_reference": -0.288943, "from_low_reference": 0.155843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5426.672347, "fair_value_reference": 4848.258296, "structural_low": 4654.177313, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.003519, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.018546, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.169192, "worst_return": -0.183363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106875, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.026293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.394217, "worst_return": -0.185871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.177717, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.073084, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.280769, "worst_return": -0.229836, "sufficient": 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"Developing", "return": 0.030328, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001454, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003519, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3055.001709, "volume": 720753, "typical_volume": 520891.05, "trend": 2991.908032, "fair_value": 2706.955709, "relative_strength": -1.187361, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"down", "direction": -19.051033, "energy": 17.32452, "activity_lines": [ 5438.006348, 5347.296245, 5354.676179, 5381.758498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5649.0, "volume": 672509, "typical_volume": 296732.85, "trend": 5441.839014, "fair_value": 4820.000351, "relative_strength": 1.604456, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.638048, "energy": 21.787677, "activity_lines": [ 5500.7375, 5405.911328, 5384.787272, 5395.045229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5444.0, "volume": 270634, "typical_volume": 290829.25, "trend": 5437.95568, "fair_value": 4834.472414, "relative_strength": -4.173167, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.855275, "energy": 15.84587, "activity_lines": [ 5484.074772, 5423.890048, 5394.315032, 5395.184647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5379.5, "volume": 164061, "typical_volume": 278738.75, "trend": 5426.672347, "fair_value": 4848.258296, "relative_strength": -5.479588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.152092, "energy": 10.754968, "activity_lines": [ 5453.4, 5432.205131, 5395.595173, 5391.413313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }