{ "ticker": { "uuid": "175a8e1a-a9c3-4c1c-878f-71344b32ed5c", "symbol": "EMSRI", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.162, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.339, "architecture_energy": 23.312, "architecture_maturity": 63.411, "architecture_confidence": 83.899, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.01, "rotation_up": 25.56, "upward_expansion": 56.75, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 35.68, "downward_expansion": 20.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.710667, 69.502764, 69.124243, 67.824282 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 69.910004, "trend_reference": 66.256567, "distance_from_trend": 0.055141, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.540819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.21433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100079, "excess_performance": 0.046767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055141, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053282, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028637, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032143, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100079, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73904, "relative_activity": 2.301854, "balance": 0.541359, "dry_up": 2.434226, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042431, "annualized_volatility": 0.21347, "from_high_reference": -0.042591, "from_low_reference": 0.262711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.256567, "fair_value_reference": 54.540819, "structural_low": 59.023998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036374, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.035117, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.090864, "worst_return": -0.00606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.096789, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040399, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188428, "worst_return": 0.025207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.082398, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188831, "worst_return": -0.024036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093628, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065411, "active": false 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70.558879, "activity_lines": [ 71.309466, 70.352237, 68.146172, 66.710493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 71.160004, "volume": 75484, "typical_volume": 22244.5, "trend": 65.1991, "fair_value": 54.061614, "relative_strength": 10.768419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.227, "energy": 59.985829, "activity_lines": [ 71.452667, 70.650273, 68.606048, 67.121944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.599998, "volume": 55530, "typical_volume": 24055.6, "trend": 65.467333, "fair_value": 54.181569, "relative_strength": 4.97756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.854342, "energy": 35.999479, "activity_lines": [ 70.209333, 70.215182, 68.699953, 67.276841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.449997, "volume": 41268, "typical_volume": 24136.1, "trend": 65.765033, "fair_value": 54.293415, "relative_strength": 5.584369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.576906, "energy": 26.921894, "activity_lines": [ 69.407332, 69.964127, 68.861991, 67.469271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.349998, "volume": 141914, "typical_volume": 29448.1, "trend": 65.9923, "fair_value": 54.403466, "relative_strength": 2.047799, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.357704, "energy": 20.650022, "activity_lines": [ 68.536665, 69.493072, 68.885167, 67.571527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.910004, "volume": 73904, "typical_volume": 32106.3, "trend": 66.256567, "fair_value": 54.540819, "relative_strength": 3.21433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.33873, "energy": 23.312174, "activity_lines": [ 68.710667, 69.502764, 69.124243, 67.824282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }