{ "ticker": { "uuid": "175ac75d-7427-49c8-8b9d-1b2e7c35ef42", "symbol": "ALMUN", "name": "Munic S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.004, "architecture_energy": 46.407, "architecture_maturity": 74.545, "architecture_confidence": 93.763, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.57, "rotation_up": 22.57, "upward_expansion": 5.18, "deceleration": 48.99, "rotation_down": 52.84, "downward_expansion": 76.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.446067, 0.458836, 0.473605, 0.500927 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.560767, "distance_from_trend": -0.268858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.730667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.438869, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.496111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342949, "excess_performance": -0.39626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.268858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.438869, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043037, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.434961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15434, "relative_activity": 0.369323, "balance": 0.726362, "dry_up": 0.497955, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141088, "annualized_volatility": 0.593809, "from_high_reference": -0.640351, "from_low_reference": 0.037975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.560767, "fair_value_reference": 0.730667, "structural_low": 0.395, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.062826, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.037245, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 1.018349, "worst_return": -0.443231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.156443, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.146096, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.590361, "worst_return": -0.640288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.11072, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.845455, "worst_return": -0.6633, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245562, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.39759, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.331169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": 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-48.982723, "energy": 32.502091, "activity_lines": [ 0.469867, 0.468709, 0.491557, 0.52863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.489, "volume": 15116, "typical_volume": 43074.1, "trend": 0.594433, "fair_value": 0.755282, "relative_strength": -31.973232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.319921, "energy": 27.021173, "activity_lines": [ 0.474533, 0.472327, 0.488767, 0.521069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.45, "volume": 25262, "typical_volume": 43254.3, "trend": 0.577767, "fair_value": 0.742846, "relative_strength": -37.460711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.962148, "energy": 35.509424, "activity_lines": [ 0.466, 0.469036, 0.48279, 0.511751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 15434, "typical_volume": 41789.95, "trend": 0.560767, "fair_value": 0.730667, "relative_strength": -43.496111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.004153, "energy": 46.407365, "activity_lines": [ 0.446067, 0.458836, 0.473605, 0.500927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }