{ "ticker": { "uuid": "175ad4d3-e243-467c-b155-738adf1bbd67", "symbol": "AIRTP", "name": "Air T Inc PR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 85.988, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.994, "architecture_energy": 8.167, "architecture_maturity": 32.33, "architecture_confidence": 42.588, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.87, "rotation_up": 21.37, "upward_expansion": 19.53, "deceleration": 63.51, "rotation_down": 44.62, "downward_expansion": 33.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.079333, 19.175636, 19.15057, 19.119362 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.02, "trend_reference": 19.130451, "distance_from_trend": -0.005774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.890891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196912, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.085733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016609, "excess_performance": -0.204062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011896, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196912, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018985, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016609, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33140, "relative_activity": 2.868916, "balance": 0.755255, "dry_up": 2.082388, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039881, "annualized_volatility": 0.113232, "from_high_reference": -0.061667, "from_low_reference": 0.167985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.130451, "fair_value_reference": 15.890891, "structural_low": 17.647274, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.015738, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.008296, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.092678, "worst_return": -0.107532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026967, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.023513, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.094554, "worst_return": -0.078181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019587, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.036875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134157, "worst_return": 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19.111205, "fair_value": 15.858609, "relative_strength": -5.218757, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.004936, "energy": 14.605824, "activity_lines": [ 19.259, 19.263455, 19.156973, 19.133071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.0, "volume": 26519, "typical_volume": 10044.1, "trend": 19.121287, "fair_value": 15.874058, "relative_strength": -6.82468, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.083051, "energy": 11.362012, "activity_lines": [ 19.149333, 19.215636, 19.152421, 19.125897 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.02, "volume": 33140, "typical_volume": 11551.4, "trend": 19.130451, "fair_value": 15.890891, "relative_strength": -11.085733, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.994461, "energy": 8.166669, "activity_lines": [ 19.079333, 19.175636, 19.15057, 19.119362 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }