{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17628b9f-1ada-4ff2-9834-d4cbfa873c06", "symbol": "ENER", "name": "Ecoener, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.587, "architecture_energy": 61.415, "architecture_maturity": 48.225, "architecture_confidence": 88.251, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 17.52, "upward_expansion": 10.53, "deceleration": 44.93, "rotation_down": 67.21, "downward_expansion": 86.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.064667, 4.14, 4.26381, 4.372495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.96, "trend_reference": 4.540333, "distance_from_trend": -0.127817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.302855, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.444802, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204819, "excess_performance": -0.32925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054557, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116393, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204819, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.608634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14779, "relative_activity": 0.421725, "balance": 0.608634, "dry_up": 1.279557, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054002, "annualized_volatility": 0.237448, "from_high_reference": -0.247148, "from_low_reference": 0.015385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.540333, "fair_value_reference": 4.302855, "structural_low": 3.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.002331, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.016636, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.157407, "worst_return": -0.245823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021978, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.075743, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.10828, "worst_return": -0.131265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.209433, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.201258, "worst_return": -0.293333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 4.1, "volume": 40516, "typical_volume": 34152.6, "trend": 4.668, "fair_value": 4.317419, "relative_strength": -25.557835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.961918, "energy": 73.292314, "activity_lines": [ 4.207333, 4.290727, 4.394714, 4.509011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.32, "volume": 63110, "typical_volume": 35053.45, "trend": 4.645333, "fair_value": 4.31456, "relative_strength": -20.224135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.338273, "energy": 61.707179, "activity_lines": [ 4.228667, 4.284727, 4.378286, 4.486559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.01, "volume": 64035, "typical_volume": 35632.7, "trend": 4.611667, "fair_value": 4.310091, "relative_strength": -26.644102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.154054, "energy": 69.176768, "activity_lines": [ 4.152667, 4.225636, 4.335476, 4.44557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.1, "volume": 37440, "typical_volume": 35909.15, "trend": 4.581, "fair_value": 4.306387, "relative_strength": -25.084317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.044155, "energy": 67.282869, "activity_lines": [ 4.125333, 4.192545, 4.30481, 4.412559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.96, "volume": 14779, "typical_volume": 35044.15, "trend": 4.540333, "fair_value": 4.302855, "relative_strength": -28.444802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.586706, "energy": 61.414659, "activity_lines": [ 4.064667, 4.14, 4.26381, 4.372495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }