{ "ticker": { "uuid": "176eda62-8a77-48e8-be85-0dc82c54479e", "symbol": "300992", "name": "Zhejiang Taifu Pump Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.899, "architecture_energy": 69.73, "architecture_maturity": 24.042, "architecture_confidence": 93.65, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.26, "rotation_up": 13.91, "upward_expansion": 15.64, "deceleration": 38.65, "rotation_down": 67.12, "downward_expansion": 88.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.324667, 23.366383, 25.51534, 27.193294 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.93, "trend_reference": 29.024635, "distance_from_trend": -0.175528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.600871, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058809, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.972386, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.272202, "excess_performance": -0.279602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272202, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.219621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7996291, "relative_activity": 0.540486, "balance": 0.219621, "dry_up": 0.643622, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139255, "annualized_volatility": 0.402366, "from_high_reference": -0.428606, "from_low_reference": 0.281735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.024635, "fair_value_reference": 22.600871, "structural_low": 18.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.039374, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006642, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.195222, "worst_return": -0.108989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08078, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.023427, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.395664, "worst_return": -0.108426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130215, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.141784, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.577236, "worst_return": -0.053805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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63.813677, "activity_lines": [ 25.648738, 26.58175, 28.60046, 29.387348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.57, "volume": 18455810, "typical_volume": 15753414.3, "trend": 29.605635, "fair_value": 22.551036, "relative_strength": -18.033928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.898581, "energy": 52.710733, "activity_lines": [ 25.593469, 26.201949, 28.181988, 29.128813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.450001, "volume": 11979283, "typical_volume": 15939512.95, "trend": 29.507635, "fair_value": 22.566941, "relative_strength": -20.471259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.279695, "energy": 62.512811, "activity_lines": [ 24.558837, 25.346149, 27.496612, 28.667159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.889999, "volume": 9942190, "typical_volume": 15985915.2, "trend": 29.300301, "fair_value": 22.565864, "relative_strength": -29.270119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.28336, "energy": 73.636807, "activity_lines": [ 22.882348, 24.18253, 26.612331, 28.046666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.27, "volume": 8170863, "typical_volume": 15315737.8, "trend": 29.126968, "fair_value": 22.57357, "relative_strength": -22.730395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.896031, "energy": 77.520195, "activity_lines": [ 22.021416, 23.462911, 25.909669, 27.528582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.93, "volume": 7996291, "typical_volume": 14794638.85, "trend": 29.024635, "fair_value": 22.600871, "relative_strength": -16.972386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.899467, "energy": 69.72976, "activity_lines": [ 22.324667, 23.366383, 25.51534, 27.193294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }