{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1772476d-3e9d-4598-bb50-6351ded7a204", "symbol": "GILD", "name": "Gilead Sciences, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.372, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.21, "architecture_energy": 25.598, "architecture_maturity": 34.255, "architecture_confidence": 49.752, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.58, "rotation_up": 40.58, "upward_expansion": 20.69, "deceleration": 44.11, "rotation_down": 17.24, "downward_expansion": 52.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 2307.0, 2273.991665, 2274.36153, 2319.118983 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2300.0, "trend_reference": 2366.702312, "distance_from_trend": -0.028184, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1831.701056, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.748454, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.113841, "excess_performance": -0.059174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255663, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.059669, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 456, "relative_activity": 1.048637, "balance": 5.059669, "dry_up": 1.025641, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031893, "annualized_volatility": 0.230512, "from_high_reference": -0.121427, "from_low_reference": 0.136387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2366.702312, "fair_value_reference": 1831.701056, "structural_low": 2102.778583, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.018769, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008036, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.072813, "worst_return": -0.110135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054739, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093622, "worst_return": -0.175237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060774, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036961, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263507, "worst_return": -0.170096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.087949, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00912, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.376382, "worst_return": -0.045369, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.419895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030737, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049445, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076425, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09235, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052338, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1287.876587, "volume": 208, "typical_volume": 1830.1, "trend": 1416.506201, "fair_value": 1355.66472, "relative_strength": -13.347658, "stage": 4, 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512.3, "trend": 2361.49284, "fair_value": 1819.394443, "relative_strength": -2.387179, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.940452, "energy": 28.413334, "activity_lines": [ 2295.943327, 2255.068894, 2279.656989, 2327.14415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2301.25, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 465.45, "trend": 2364.147234, "fair_value": 1825.648063, "relative_strength": -1.902676, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.666066, "energy": 28.779591, "activity_lines": [ 2304.927995, 2264.436192, 2276.366093, 2323.257515 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2300.0, "volume": 456, "typical_volume": 434.85, "trend": 2366.702312, "fair_value": 1831.701056, "relative_strength": -1.748454, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.209778, "energy": 25.597722, "activity_lines": [ 2307.0, 2273.991665, 2274.36153, 2319.118983 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }