{ "ticker": { "uuid": "177f823f-ce34-4213-9816-08a78905d2ac", "symbol": "ORVR3", "name": "Orizon Valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o de Res\u00edduos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 50.213, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.663, "architecture_energy": 61.532, "architecture_maturity": 11.132, "architecture_confidence": 79.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.97, "rotation_up": 19.57, "upward_expansion": 32.15, "deceleration": 43.68, "rotation_down": 71.07, "downward_expansion": 54.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.476667, 73.204546, 75.642429, 75.31 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 67.849998, "trend_reference": 74.491334, "distance_from_trend": -0.089156, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.374744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.325427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051712, "excess_performance": 0.005336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089156, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04581, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346905, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.402377, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177665, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051712, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335078, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2760800, "relative_activity": 1.035479, "balance": 0.335078, "dry_up": 1.11986, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066856, "annualized_volatility": 0.335607, "from_high_reference": -0.200825, "from_low_reference": 0.42782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.491334, "fair_value_reference": 50.374744, "structural_low": 63.349998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.157395, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.108908, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.295462, "worst_return": -0.106883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.105645, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.125028, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153365, "worst_return": 0.057925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.250175, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.153388, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253514, "worst_return": 0.246835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027685, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0422, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.760359, "energy": 29.555372, "activity_lines": [ 74.458669, 75.839093, 76.998668, 76.01099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.5, "volume": 3436200, "typical_volume": 2854170.0, "trend": 74.625667, "fair_value": 50.175577, "relative_strength": -2.466953, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.997228, "energy": 46.403858, "activity_lines": [ 72.636669, 74.706365, 76.461906, 75.74714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.849998, "volume": 2760800, "typical_volume": 2666205.0, "trend": 74.491334, "fair_value": 50.374744, "relative_strength": -3.325427, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.663093, "energy": 61.532026, "activity_lines": [ 70.476667, 73.204546, 75.642429, 75.31 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }