{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17838da8-40e3-44b8-a7ab-f79dc318150a", "symbol": "EFX", "name": "Equifax Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.633, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.274, "architecture_energy": 12.6, "architecture_maturity": 16.718, "architecture_confidence": 73.47, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.41, "rotation_up": 37.34, "upward_expansion": 32.22, "deceleration": 44.25, "rotation_down": 15.29, "downward_expansion": 40.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.1, 171.878364, 170.192938, 173.50142 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 182.56, "trend_reference": 180.333125, "distance_from_trend": 0.012349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 228.625017, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201487, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.466663, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061013, "excess_performance": -0.186638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201487, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044182, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061013, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.154905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6364864, "relative_activity": 0.746609, "balance": 1.154905, "dry_up": 1.073849, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086043, "annualized_volatility": 0.417747, "from_high_reference": -0.32268, "from_low_reference": 0.211052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 180.333125, "fair_value_reference": 228.625017, "structural_low": 150.745, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013613, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.122865, "worst_return": -0.108041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045627, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.029004, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.327326, "worst_return": -0.147128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.111121, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.016185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133583, "worst_return": -0.139022, "sufficient": false }, { 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-21.057567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.876929, "energy": 15.774681, "activity_lines": [ 169.217333, 166.702022, 169.063824, 174.911684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 172.54, "volume": 15434948, "typical_volume": 8517035.8, "trend": 183.103462, "fair_value": 228.820606, "relative_strength": -21.865058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.897932, "energy": 19.022882, "activity_lines": [ 171.530667, 168.045636, 168.994055, 174.126599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 172.62, "volume": 8757373, "typical_volume": 8609415.1, "trend": 181.766808, "fair_value": 228.6897, "relative_strength": -21.897083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.178816, "energy": 12.982056, "activity_lines": [ 172.63, 169.136364, 169.093894, 173.450247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 182.56, "volume": 6364864, "typical_volume": 8525033.2, "trend": 180.333125, "fair_value": 228.625017, "relative_strength": -19.466663, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.274217, "energy": 12.599908, "activity_lines": [ 176.1, 171.878364, 170.192938, 173.50142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }