{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "17850894-74ad-4027-9efc-e12e63971fab",
    "symbol": "600036",
    "name": "China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHH",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "000001.SS",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 66.085,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 17.738,
    "architecture_energy": 32.268,
    "architecture_maturity": 29.63,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.568,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.11,
        "rotation_up": 63.37,
        "upward_expansion": 41.25,
        "deceleration": 44.2,
        "rotation_down": 16.73,
        "downward_expansion": 18.58
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        38.866666,
        37.961943,
        37.826273,
        38.091021
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 38.799999,
    "trend_reference": 38.408833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.010184,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 35.221028,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101615,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.477199,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.003362,
    "excess_performance": 0.046566,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010184,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.031416,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.101615,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000603,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.014772,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.139943,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003362,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.49882,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 491634871,
      "relative_activity": 1.433555,
      "balance": 1.49882,
      "dry_up": 1.557871,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034438,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.154356,
      "from_high_reference": -0.129558,
      "from_low_reference": 0.11106
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 38.408833,
      "fair_value_reference": 35.221028,
      "structural_low": 34.921609,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.012227,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003756,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.128678,
        "worst_return": -0.100855,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.001708,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019695,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.104126,
        "worst_return": -0.117094,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.007416,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.077723,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.213023,
        "worst_return": -0.138746,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.076505,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.033389,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.332202,
        "worst_return": -0.179192,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.055571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.054385,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.043501,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.105794,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.046815,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.069676,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.053118,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.057716,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.076204,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.051733,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.037056,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.052324,
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
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        "trend": 38.57527,
        "fair_value": 35.000005,
        "relative_strength": -0.153744,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "energy": 44.4069,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 322471674.7,
        "trend": 38.517619,
        "fair_value": 35.07833,
        "relative_strength": 2.010726,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -10.635518,
        "energy": 13.610298,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 39.619999,
        "volume": 578087454,
        "typical_volume": 334561552.5,
        "trend": 38.483391,
        "fair_value": 35.15194,
        "relative_strength": 2.975665,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.533617,
        "energy": 31.704883,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 38.799999,
        "volume": 491634871,
        "typical_volume": 342948022.25,
        "trend": 38.408833,
        "fair_value": 35.221028,
        "relative_strength": -1.477199,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.737909,
        "energy": 32.267722,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}