{ "ticker": { "uuid": "178540bc-4b62-493c-868a-b0dad9c4a967", "symbol": "MORE", "name": "Mackenzie Core Resources ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.874, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.384, "architecture_energy": 30.607, "architecture_maturity": 25.804, "architecture_confidence": 53.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.0, "rotation_up": 59.4, "upward_expansion": 62.58, "deceleration": 64.68, "rotation_down": 16.29, "downward_expansion": 19.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.946, 36.502909, 36.751476, 36.742989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.0, "trend_reference": 36.488333, "distance_from_trend": 0.041429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.552826, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.952554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099855, "excess_performance": -0.020566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059547, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057106, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029526, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099855, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.770807, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46700, "relative_activity": 1.173367, "balance": 0.770807, "dry_up": 1.071608, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030506, "annualized_volatility": 0.195512, "from_high_reference": -0.027138, "from_low_reference": 0.598983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.488333, "fair_value_reference": 27.552826, "structural_low": 34.57, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03992, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009681, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 20.031015, "volume": 102100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"fair_value": 27.168673, "relative_strength": 0.351289, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.943971, "energy": 41.559126, "activity_lines": [ 35.751333, 36.394181, 36.760666, 36.553542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.310001, "volume": 42900, "typical_volume": 51300.0, "trend": 35.940333, "fair_value": 27.252604, "relative_strength": -0.245341, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.018477, "energy": 56.279111, "activity_lines": [ 35.508, 36.108182, 36.610286, 36.522452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.009998, "volume": 51100, "typical_volume": 45645.0, "trend": 36.122333, "fair_value": 27.352169, "relative_strength": 3.865954, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.876643, "energy": 18.993881, "activity_lines": [ 35.964666, 36.172727, 36.636285, 36.591462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.77, "volume": 29900, "typical_volume": 42520.0, "trend": 36.299, "fair_value": 27.447299, "relative_strength": 3.242482, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.041642, "energy": 7.048996, "activity_lines": [ 36.305333, 36.213818, 36.63619, 36.633247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.0, "volume": 46700, "typical_volume": 39800.0, "trend": 36.488333, "fair_value": 27.552826, "relative_strength": 2.952554, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.383588, "energy": 30.606829, "activity_lines": [ 36.946, 36.502909, 36.751476, 36.742989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }