{ "ticker": { "uuid": "179441f9-bc68-4f5c-b3f5-f69bac56c40a", "symbol": "300945", "name": "MCLON JEWELLERY Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.559, "architecture_energy": 52.339, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.966, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.32, "rotation_up": 26.98, "upward_expansion": 16.21, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 49.81, "downward_expansion": 77.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.119333, 11.106276, 12.061149, 13.205336 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.78, "trend_reference": 14.7627, "distance_from_trend": -0.202043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.883246, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.151495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.580421, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.397442, "excess_performance": -0.404842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.151495, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.397442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71060157, "relative_activity": 1.953685, "balance": 0.457344, "dry_up": 1.471367, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095236, "annualized_volatility": 0.391226, "from_high_reference": -0.567071, "from_low_reference": 0.170974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.7627, "fair_value_reference": 13.883246, "structural_low": 10.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.005166, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032088, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.261614, "worst_return": -0.225078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.10089, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.066813, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.169574, "worst_return": -0.310184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.079865, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.338137, "worst_return": -0.35279, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.442016, "energy": 75.908362, "activity_lines": [ 10.794667, 11.369921, 12.760116, 13.97274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.24, "volume": 53973561, "typical_volume": 37576943.1, "trend": 15.097366, "fair_value": 13.937554, "relative_strength": -39.905768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.809941, "energy": 69.458244, "activity_lines": [ 10.542, 11.056172, 12.400826, 13.643147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.44, "volume": 53579801, "typical_volume": 35320412.9, "trend": 14.9087, "fair_value": 13.913444, "relative_strength": -30.939806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.52815, "energy": 64.406796, "activity_lines": [ 10.796667, 11.031287, 12.200392, 13.407188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.78, "volume": 71060157, "typical_volume": 36372379.0, "trend": 14.7627, "fair_value": 13.883246, "relative_strength": -31.580421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.558897, "energy": 52.338643, "activity_lines": [ 11.119333, 11.106276, 12.061149, 13.205336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }