{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1795f983-ae9c-4b58-a675-3b40b45b3a91", "symbol": "PMP", "name": "Portmeirion Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.758, "architecture_energy": 64.307, "architecture_maturity": 79.758, "architecture_confidence": 94.912, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 28.06, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.53, "rotation_down": 52.72, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5085, 0.516045, 0.625274, 0.704296 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.5, "trend_reference": 0.799917, "distance_from_trend": -0.374935, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.714051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.708293, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.020298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.473684, "excess_performance": -0.52492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.374935, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.708293, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.510203, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262812, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.473684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.053555, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88790, "relative_activity": 0.719579, "balance": 0.053555, "dry_up": 1.230049, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149837, "annualized_volatility": 0.807439, "from_high_reference": -0.637681, "from_low_reference": 0.06067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.799917, "fair_value_reference": 1.714051, "structural_low": 0.4714, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.023809, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.560976, "median_excess_return": -0.039246, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.240741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.125916, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.136748, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.227092, "worst_return": -0.442623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.252023, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.291841, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.075977, "worst_return": -0.358087, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.5325, "volume": 282363, "typical_volume": 112299.25, "trend": 0.8615, "fair_value": 1.775209, "relative_strength": -49.897647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.051412, "energy": 87.771632, "activity_lines": [ 0.527167, 0.603455, 0.725333, 0.789043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.5325, "volume": 83137, "typical_volume": 108448.15, "trend": 0.84675, "fair_value": 1.759951, "relative_strength": -49.44165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.339046, "energy": 69.846247, "activity_lines": [ 0.5295, 0.5745, 0.699238, 0.767817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.51, "volume": 129019, "typical_volume": 110519.9, "trend": 0.83125, "fair_value": 1.743926, "relative_strength": -51.215395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.004561, "energy": 66.434236, "activity_lines": [ 0.523833, 0.5485, 0.67306, 0.746091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5, "volume": 306165, "typical_volume": 124277.2, "trend": 0.816583, "fair_value": 1.729579, "relative_strength": -51.847639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.159547, "energy": 65.466232, "activity_lines": [ 0.515833, 0.528136, 0.648095, 0.72472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5, "volume": 88790, "typical_volume": 123391.65, "trend": 0.799917, "fair_value": 1.714051, "relative_strength": -51.020298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.757735, "energy": 64.307097, "activity_lines": [ 0.5085, 0.516045, 0.625274, 0.704296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }