{ "ticker": { "uuid": "179640d3-9d24-404b-9c77-d3bdb7efb110", "symbol": "300537", "name": "Jiangsu Kuangshun Photosensitivity New-Material Stock Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.246, "architecture_energy": 66.338, "architecture_maturity": 21.478, "architecture_confidence": 74.154, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.72, "rotation_up": 10.74, "upward_expansion": 14.86, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 74.82, "downward_expansion": 85.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.019333, 22.385455, 24.121191, 24.194817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.23, "trend_reference": 24.328667, "distance_from_trend": -0.168471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.223141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.123787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.219522, "excess_performance": -0.226921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168471, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01822, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.996473, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60304822, "relative_activity": 1.061998, "balance": 0.996473, "dry_up": 1.090505, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225142, "annualized_volatility": 0.710862, "from_high_reference": -0.411919, "from_low_reference": 0.305161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.328667, "fair_value_reference": 20.223141, "structural_low": 15.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046028, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.057443, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.24165, "worst_return": -0.03613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009306, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.027185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083925, "worst_return": -0.074709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.19627, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.016772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.609878, "worst_return": -0.279633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074445, 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"2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003036, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009578, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054365, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": 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"up", "direction": 81.371975, "energy": 58.896618, "activity_lines": [ 29.164667, 28.016, 25.996953, 25.364903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.85, "volume": 29727282, "typical_volume": 50854318.55, "trend": 24.883333, "fair_value": 20.100897, "relative_strength": 6.063458, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.269837, "energy": 59.525642, "activity_lines": [ 30.007334, 28.763455, 26.545286, 25.767764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.43, "volume": 82325688, "typical_volume": 51917038.0, "trend": 24.952667, "fair_value": 20.166154, "relative_strength": -8.657472, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.246745, "energy": 38.730841, "activity_lines": [ 28.799333, 28.384182, 26.553476, 25.803032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.0, "volume": 62531235, "typical_volume": 52540006.9, "trend": 24.756, "fair_value": 20.183205, "relative_strength": -24.112768, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.061564, "energy": 5.869542, "activity_lines": [ 25.548667, 26.782909, 25.948191, 25.418989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 68596531, "typical_volume": 53763681.65, "trend": 24.566667, "fair_value": 20.188461, "relative_strength": -30.498702, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.956192, "energy": 35.49339, "activity_lines": [ 22.197334, 24.957273, 25.215286, 24.937312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.209999, "volume": 56261558, "typical_volume": 55008570.6, "trend": 24.382, "fair_value": 20.191987, "relative_strength": -29.0802, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.880044, "energy": 44.479612, "activity_lines": [ 19.594667, 23.278, 24.508667, 24.462688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.23, "volume": 60304822, "typical_volume": 56784300.7, "trend": 24.328667, "fair_value": 20.223141, "relative_strength": -20.123787, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.246208, "energy": 66.338009, "activity_lines": [ 19.019333, 22.385455, 24.121191, 24.194817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }