{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17989f25-9faa-420f-87f7-f431ac74786d", "symbol": "PLT", "name": "Plenti Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.321, "architecture_energy": 23.862, "architecture_maturity": 85.112, "architecture_confidence": 91.391, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.89, "rotation_up": 28.84, "upward_expansion": 16.92, "deceleration": 41.5, "rotation_down": 34.09, "downward_expansion": 64.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.765667, 0.755727, 0.777619, 0.801269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.815, "trend_reference": 0.8595, "distance_from_trend": -0.051774, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.812115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003552, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.751842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.168367, "excess_performance": -0.232073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039395, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.030213, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1161994, "relative_activity": 1.412164, "balance": 1.030213, "dry_up": 0.853848, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074563, "annualized_volatility": 0.349603, "from_high_reference": -0.506061, "from_low_reference": 0.181159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8595, "fair_value_reference": 0.812115, "structural_low": 0.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.007246, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.023341, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 1.202899, "worst_return": -0.286667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.128866, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.096705, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.917808, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039474, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021474, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.794521, "worst_return": -0.434555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134328, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101124, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.729333, 0.744818, 0.778881, 0.812817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.76, "volume": 195539, "typical_volume": 800884.4, "trend": 0.871167, "fair_value": 0.809359, "relative_strength": -29.027962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.349143, "energy": 45.761918, "activity_lines": [ 0.738, 0.744727, 0.775476, 0.804892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.815, "volume": 1161994, "typical_volume": 822846.5, "trend": 0.8595, "fair_value": 0.812115, "relative_strength": -25.751842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.321161, "energy": 23.862287, "activity_lines": [ 0.765667, 0.755727, 0.777619, 0.801269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }