{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1798c8a4-8fac-4169-afee-b3ecf58b046b", "symbol": "KMX", "name": "CarMax Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 10, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 86.665, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 75.462, "composite_score": 80.996, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.007, "architecture_energy": 74.229, "architecture_maturity": 31.731, "architecture_confidence": 86.887, "architecture_age_weeks": 6, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.007, "energy": 74.229, "maturity": 31.731, "confidence": 86.887, "confirmation": 95.848, "age_weeks": 6, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.23, "rotation_up": 74.33, "upward_expansion": 92.03, "deceleration": 44.55, "rotation_down": 12.03, "downward_expansion": 16.37 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 56.627333, "10": 54.678182, "20": 49.864619, "30": 47.738473 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 0.973739, "10": 1.229871, "20": 0.90135, "30": 0.629116 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 1.78291, "fan_width_change_4": 0.360208, "fan_width_percentile": 0.875, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.374202, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.336572, "price_acceptance": 0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.126899, "accepted_above": 0.833333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.125 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 87/100." }, "latest_close": 57.26, "sma_30": 45.931333, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.246644, "sma_30_slope": 0.119648, "fair_value": 64.775962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11603, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.311138, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 14.207291, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 45.043501, "range_position_52": 0.835838, "returns": { "13": 0.486115, "26": 0.285586, "52": 0.022865 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.200265, "52": -0.191969 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 43.13, "2": 44.0, "3": 26.97, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.246644, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.119648, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11603, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.311138, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.142073, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.450435, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.429409, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13589452, "ratio_20": 0.842198, "up_down_ratio_13": 2.429409, "dry_up_ratio": 0.875115, "accumulation_weeks": 3, "distribution_weeks": 1 }, "base": { "high_26": 61.1, "low_26": 35.17, "depth": 0.424386, "compression": 0.583526, "breakout_distance": -0.062848 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.087069, "annualized_volatility": 0.473342, "drawdown_from_52_high": 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slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. 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