{ "ticker": { "uuid": "179988ec-63aa-48e6-ae32-dee2eb061c02", "symbol": "RGL", "name": "Riversgold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.079, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.257, "architecture_energy": 42.485, "architecture_maturity": 34.521, "architecture_confidence": 85.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.35, "rotation_up": 22.15, "upward_expansion": 6.06, "deceleration": 55.4, "rotation_down": 46.84, "downward_expansion": 74.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.009267, 0.0094, 0.010757, 0.011661 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.01, "trend_reference": 0.01275, "distance_from_trend": -0.215686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.007849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273989, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.597003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230769, "excess_performance": -0.294475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273989, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.428935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.718384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495518, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16554215, "relative_activity": 0.764202, "balance": 0.495518, "dry_up": 0.770962, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215385, "annualized_volatility": 0.979822, "from_high_reference": -0.565217, "from_low_reference": 2.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.01275, "fair_value_reference": 0.007849, "structural_low": 0.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.081167, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.078287, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.214286, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.197619, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 4.395794, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.267857, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.325276, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.839475, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.407407, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.487472, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.080262, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.555556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.559745, "energy": 74.243749, "activity_lines": [ 0.008533, 0.009527, 0.011131, 0.012006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01, "volume": 20826418, "typical_volume": 23838664.15, "trend": 0.012717, "fair_value": 0.007875, "relative_strength": -1.54555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.794018, "energy": 61.325567, "activity_lines": [ 0.008933, 0.009436, 0.010933, 0.011837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01, "volume": 16554215, "typical_volume": 21662083.7, "trend": 0.01275, "fair_value": 0.007849, "relative_strength": -5.597003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.257161, "energy": 42.485076, "activity_lines": [ 0.009267, 0.0094, 0.010757, 0.011661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }