{ "ticker": { "uuid": "179c1adb-e65c-4016-a36c-0948c6917ef2", "symbol": "V3AA", "name": "Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.929, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.782, "architecture_energy": 55.805, "architecture_maturity": 64.347, "architecture_confidence": 69.57, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.78, "rotation_up": 46.99, "upward_expansion": 76.14, "deceleration": 91.48, "rotation_down": 29.65, "downward_expansion": 14.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.577267, 7.574891, 7.464843, 7.288234 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.735, "trend_reference": 7.084367, "distance_from_trend": 0.091841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.982747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292884, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.77628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.152757, "excess_performance": -0.018135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091841, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031926, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0142, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.497667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53570, "relative_activity": 0.808335, "balance": 1.497667, "dry_up": 0.896222, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021143, "annualized_volatility": 0.135748, "from_high_reference": -0.002064, "from_low_reference": 0.251618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.084367, "fair_value_reference": 5.982747, "structural_low": 6.305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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0.144146, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069528, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.192074, "worst_return": 0.096218, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024749, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01454, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116031, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071239, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.996834, "energy": 65.177421, "activity_lines": [ 7.591133, 7.555218, 7.352433, 7.184583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.513, "volume": 62599, "typical_volume": 65183.95, "trend": 7.028, "fair_value": 5.94541, "relative_strength": -2.246052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.506596, "energy": 62.26294, "activity_lines": [ 7.5632, 7.555636, 7.389086, 7.217748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.44, "volume": 37667, "typical_volume": 66157.45, "trend": 7.054467, "fair_value": 5.962965, "relative_strength": -3.770572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.963674, "energy": 46.64895, "activity_lines": [ 7.518133, 7.538745, 7.414924, 7.244329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.735, "volume": 53570, "typical_volume": 66272.05, "trend": 7.084367, "fair_value": 5.982747, "relative_strength": -2.77628, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.781613, "energy": 55.805432, "activity_lines": [ 7.577267, 7.574891, 7.464843, 7.288234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }