{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17a03e5c-d2ce-4163-943b-ed5e07b88b1b", "symbol": "300809", "name": "Hiecise Precision Equipment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.811, "architecture_energy": 75.33, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.093, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.18, "rotation_up": 10.22, "upward_expansion": 17.22, "deceleration": 38.68, "rotation_down": 73.12, "downward_expansion": 90.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.184667, 25.145238, 29.05394, 30.844466 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.4, "trend_reference": 33.336798, "distance_from_trend": -0.268076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.524763, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.935321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37484, "excess_performance": -0.38224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.268076, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.359353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.567127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30543277, "relative_activity": 1.027668, "balance": 1.567127, "dry_up": 1.132909, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178656, "annualized_volatility": 0.613714, "from_high_reference": -0.534965, "from_low_reference": 0.173641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.336798, "fair_value_reference": 30.524763, "structural_low": 20.790001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.044745, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.024931, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.201331, "worst_return": -0.247586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.053777, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.024987, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.291583, "worst_return": -0.148486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017204, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.104937, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.36974, "worst_return": -0.194278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-83.025019, "energy": 85.213339, "activity_lines": [ 26.128435, 29.243634, 31.742044, 33.066879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.280001, "volume": 22260564, "typical_volume": 26918411.15, "trend": 34.277131, "fair_value": 30.483971, "relative_strength": -43.647321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.920016, "energy": 86.079192, "activity_lines": [ 24.084749, 27.291563, 30.638311, 32.196698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.709999, "volume": 60531455, "typical_volume": 28840266.95, "trend": 33.792465, "fair_value": 30.496664, "relative_strength": -38.071743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.395725, "energy": 81.675446, "activity_lines": [ 23.222857, 25.917673, 29.737054, 31.450432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.4, "volume": 30543277, "typical_volume": 29720946.8, "trend": 33.336798, "fair_value": 30.524763, "relative_strength": -35.935321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.81066, "energy": 75.329609, "activity_lines": [ 23.184667, 25.145238, 29.05394, 30.844466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }