{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17a516a9-0c2d-4341-b515-846f90b97b61", "symbol": "VGT", "name": "VANGUARD WORLD FUND VANGUARD INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.581, "architecture_energy": 38.967, "architecture_maturity": 59.828, "architecture_confidence": 93.89, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.98, "rotation_up": 38.65, "upward_expansion": 64.9, "deceleration": 93.44, "rotation_down": 28.18, "downward_expansion": 14.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.268667, 115.92907, 114.293531, 109.565339 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 121.45, "trend_reference": 103.739623, "distance_from_trend": 0.17072, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.45486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.548024, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.762348, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.316739, "excess_performance": 0.191114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17072, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075325, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.548024, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013935, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097623, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011553, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.316739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.633359, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20132297, "relative_activity": 1.072197, "balance": 1.633359, "dry_up": 1.159385, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057544, "annualized_volatility": 0.251805, "from_high_reference": -0.034952, "from_low_reference": 0.463415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.739623, "fair_value_reference": 78.45486, "structural_low": 82.990836, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011964, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007524, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.112496, "worst_return": -0.095379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.07879, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.000264, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.167667, "worst_return": -0.14511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.197962, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.042999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206109, "worst_return": -0.021804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.187117, "energy": 26.94821, "activity_lines": [ 113.936667, 114.914196, 113.030905, 108.36592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.45, "volume": 20132297, "typical_volume": 18776684.25, "trend": 103.739623, "fair_value": 78.45486, "relative_strength": 9.762348, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.58097, "energy": 38.967079, "activity_lines": [ 116.268667, 115.92907, 114.293531, 109.565339 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }