{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17a5a348-6e76-4967-a720-271dd83c3d62", "symbol": "4806", "name": "Kuei Tien Cultural & Creative Entertainment", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.931, "architecture_energy": 45.426, "architecture_maturity": 49.377, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.02, "rotation_up": 16.66, "upward_expansion": 7.25, "deceleration": 43.06, "rotation_down": 59.6, "downward_expansion": 82.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.906667, 10.018182, 10.141429, 10.315806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.51, "trend_reference": 10.476, "distance_from_trend": -0.092211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.909487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.497078, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.26348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.032553, "excess_performance": -0.473925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.497078, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.442635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032553, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.195331, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 275128, "relative_activity": 2.833297, "balance": 0.195331, "dry_up": 0.943008, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071908, "annualized_volatility": 0.417164, "from_high_reference": -0.496292, "from_low_reference": 0.050829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.476, "fair_value_reference": 18.909487, "structural_low": 9.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.031047, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.043713, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.370044, "worst_return": -0.118049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.093, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.012133, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.238745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.105482, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.080541, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103175, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032533, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.533333, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.183016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.602374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.171091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": 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-47.019786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.704185, "energy": 30.053227, "activity_lines": [ 10.206667, 10.245455, 10.377381, 10.482581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.1, "volume": 48301, "typical_volume": 92257.85, "trend": 10.495, "fair_value": 18.940769, "relative_strength": -42.987482, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.851643, "energy": 34.226357, "activity_lines": [ 10.17, 10.212727, 10.325, 10.457312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.0, "volume": 24003, "typical_volume": 91305.55, "trend": 10.485, "fair_value": 18.933333, "relative_strength": -43.521044, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.523222, "energy": 33.652964, "activity_lines": [ 10.11, 10.169091, 10.272619, 10.425376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.05, "volume": 49096, "typical_volume": 88044.0, "trend": 10.485, "fair_value": 18.926218, "relative_strength": -40.792719, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.658348, "energy": 32.729061, "activity_lines": [ 10.083333, 10.137273, 10.23119, 10.397312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.2, "volume": 18057, "typical_volume": 87182.25, "trend": 10.488333, "fair_value": 18.920064, "relative_strength": -39.734156, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.174677, "energy": 26.010717, "activity_lines": [ 10.106667, 10.139091, 10.215476, 10.378925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 9.51, "volume": 275128, "typical_volume": 97105.25, "trend": 10.476, "fair_value": 18.909487, "relative_strength": -44.26348, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.931306, "energy": 45.425999, "activity_lines": [ 9.906667, 10.018182, 10.141429, 10.315806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }