{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17acb7ef-e518-46c9-a502-1ebb53243ed8", "symbol": "002358", "name": "Henan Senyuan Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.997, "architecture_energy": 53.948, "architecture_maturity": 60.865, "architecture_confidence": 89.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.94, "rotation_up": 27.5, "upward_expansion": 9.9, "deceleration": 60.57, "rotation_down": 48.01, "downward_expansion": 80.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.479305, 5.506399, 5.969473, 6.411476 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.59, "trend_reference": 6.829058, "distance_from_trend": -0.181439, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.934784, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.377453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183942, "excess_performance": -0.191341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181439, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001573, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132775, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.436348, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183942, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.599294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123480979, "relative_activity": 1.070115, "balance": 0.599294, "dry_up": 1.207648, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091851, "annualized_volatility": 0.396421, "from_high_reference": -0.411579, "from_low_reference": 0.162162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.829058, "fair_value_reference": 4.934784, "structural_low": 4.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.028646, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.025121, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.101099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.109181, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.079439, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.544343, "worst_return": -0.118162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.287031, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.21897, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.657895, "worst_return": -0.021882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016854, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 5.45, "volume": 179583282, "typical_volume": 133542412.25, "trend": 6.825391, "fair_value": 4.922477, "relative_strength": -11.821399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.730559, "energy": 69.661002, "activity_lines": [ 5.364282, 5.565735, 6.162394, 6.572043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.57, "volume": 171015938, "typical_volume": 121145644.55, "trend": 6.823391, "fair_value": 4.927773, "relative_strength": -8.310153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.473064, "energy": 61.475637, "activity_lines": [ 5.420503, 5.523885, 6.057529, 6.49105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.59, "volume": 123480979, "typical_volume": 115390391.85, "trend": 6.829058, "fair_value": 4.934784, "relative_strength": -12.377453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.997202, "energy": 53.947977, "activity_lines": [ 5.479305, 5.506399, 5.969473, 6.411476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }