{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17b01f9d-9f8f-4604-83d0-b102aca768a1", "symbol": "002072", "name": "Kairuide Holding Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.206, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.357, "architecture_energy": 30.134, "architecture_maturity": 30.678, "architecture_confidence": 66.107, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.23, "rotation_up": 17.51, "upward_expansion": 19.27, "deceleration": 55.42, "rotation_down": 62.19, "downward_expansion": 44.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.976667, 7.535455, 7.713, 7.685247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.19, "trend_reference": 7.659, "distance_from_trend": -0.061235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.782244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243462, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.91138, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005533, "excess_performance": -0.012932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061235, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243462, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078898, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.937242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29276899, "relative_activity": 0.5163, "balance": 0.937242, "dry_up": 0.826214, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177918, "annualized_volatility": 0.63316, "from_high_reference": -0.321698, "from_low_reference": 0.202341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.659, "fair_value_reference": 5.782244, "structural_low": 5.98, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030899, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.01948, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.172764, "worst_return": -0.076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033113, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.075906, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.178862, "worst_return": -0.087404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104236, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.075381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.392936, "worst_return": -0.186375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 6.78, "volume": 71519489, "typical_volume": 56222474.85, "trend": 7.678, "fair_value": 5.769872, "relative_strength": -10.29098, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.04306, "energy": 10.418939, "activity_lines": [ 7.87, 8.160182, 7.936143, 7.826817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.75, "volume": 55744869, "typical_volume": 57047637.4, "trend": 7.665667, "fair_value": 5.772564, "relative_strength": -10.853493, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.582016, "energy": 16.997102, "activity_lines": [ 7.367333, 7.908364, 7.840238, 7.766946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.87, "volume": 30861324, "typical_volume": 56910421.6, "trend": 7.660667, "fair_value": 5.776795, "relative_strength": -7.700578, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.966242, "energy": 28.822039, "activity_lines": [ 7.076667, 7.689091, 7.760095, 7.715613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.19, "volume": 29276899, "typical_volume": 56705186.2, "trend": 7.659, "fair_value": 5.782244, "relative_strength": -7.91138, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.357241, "energy": 30.134024, "activity_lines": [ 6.976667, 7.535455, 7.713, 7.685247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }