{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17b7c6d8-bf04-4338-9235-783ad6a3116d", "symbol": "SGD", "name": "Snowline Gold Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.905, "architecture_energy": 9.073, "architecture_maturity": 59.625, "architecture_confidence": 68.977, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.99, "rotation_up": 33.32, "upward_expansion": 19.19, "deceleration": 42.9, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 53.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.491333, 13.928727, 14.048429, 14.427828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.48, "trend_reference": 15.200333, "distance_from_trend": 0.084187, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.760128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.881251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.619274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028874, "excess_performance": -0.149296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084187, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.881251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026193, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078142, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028874, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.13446, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3780900, "relative_activity": 2.068383, "balance": 1.13446, "dry_up": 1.282735, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100471, "annualized_volatility": 0.682378, "from_high_reference": -0.229546, "from_low_reference": 0.831111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.200333, "fair_value_reference": 8.760128, "structural_low": 11.41, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.152542, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.164595, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.256881, "worst_return": 0.031022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.387615, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.39002, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.413333, "worst_return": 0.377119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.105932, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.107691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.186667, "worst_return": 0.231651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019194, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136842, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.020238, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-55.928061, "energy": 38.350031, "activity_lines": [ 13.369333, 13.53, 14.101524, 14.750989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.99, "volume": 1700000, "typical_volume": 2128515.0, "trend": 15.49, "fair_value": 8.585064, "relative_strength": -15.813184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.953686, "energy": 36.588332, "activity_lines": [ 13.336667, 13.357091, 13.939286, 14.577204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.8, "volume": 2567600, "typical_volume": 2132620.0, "trend": 15.331, "fair_value": 8.643397, "relative_strength": -10.997211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.183312, "energy": 21.19217, "activity_lines": [ 13.537333, 13.383091, 13.883905, 14.468172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.45, "volume": 1330600, "typical_volume": 2083340.0, "trend": 15.224333, "fair_value": 8.692115, "relative_strength": -13.082571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.033256, "energy": 22.262763, "activity_lines": [ 13.551333, 13.368545, 13.815857, 14.346817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.48, "volume": 3780900, "typical_volume": 1827950.0, "trend": 15.200333, "fair_value": 8.760128, "relative_strength": 2.619274, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.905407, "energy": 9.073421, "activity_lines": [ 14.491333, 13.928727, 14.048429, 14.427828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }