{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17bb16ae-0669-4cc3-a11b-3c5d9d18d48c", "symbol": "NTLA", "name": "Intellia Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.133, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.79, "architecture_energy": 41.388, "architecture_maturity": 10.297, "architecture_confidence": 80.703, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.64, "rotation_up": 18.95, "upward_expansion": 15.25, "deceleration": 48.12, "rotation_down": 63.74, "downward_expansion": 49.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.438333, 12.828455, 13.329833, 13.353989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.94, "trend_reference": 13.321667, "distance_from_trend": -0.103716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.866571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.125821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027687, "excess_performance": -0.215141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.613956, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21672594, "relative_activity": 0.794194, "balance": 0.613956, "dry_up": 0.751585, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205961, "annualized_volatility": 0.723804, "from_high_reference": -0.577345, "from_low_reference": 0.501887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.321667, "fair_value_reference": 17.866571, "structural_low": 10.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011241, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006552, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.549788, "worst_return": -0.161051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.181746, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.215955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.532814, "worst_return": -0.462416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.133457, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.318283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.565072, "worst_return": -0.627664, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.372963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.416309, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.268441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.352221, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00466, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 37.59, "volume": 3434806, "typical_volume": 4523558.45, "trend": 40.381, "fair_value": 68.137308, "relative_strength": -27.086406, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.430524, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11.375, "volume": 26419763, "typical_volume": 27954256.9, "trend": 13.177667, "fair_value": 18.431506, "relative_strength": -22.999367, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.726633, "energy": 16.591656, "activity_lines": [ 14.363, 14.340636, 14.052929, 13.761602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.73, "volume": 16869693, "typical_volume": 26984389.0, "trend": 13.220667, "fair_value": 18.22875, "relative_strength": -25.621004, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.033588, "energy": 18.454849, "activity_lines": [ 12.906333, 13.719, 13.763167, 13.603688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.68, "volume": 17077317, "typical_volume": 27035021.1, "trend": 13.269667, "fair_value": 18.043301, "relative_strength": -26.014705, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.598176, "energy": 34.060303, "activity_lines": [ 11.762333, 13.141727, 13.481548, 13.439774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.94, "volume": 21672594, "typical_volume": 27288799.95, "trend": 13.321667, "fair_value": 17.866571, "relative_strength": -21.125821, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.789923, "energy": 41.388289, "activity_lines": [ 11.438333, 12.828455, 13.329833, 13.353989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }