{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17bb31af-5720-4ff9-9a88-61e0f428381e", "symbol": "UEFF", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-3 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.09, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.056, "architecture_energy": 43.86, "architecture_maturity": 62.212, "architecture_confidence": 57.499, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.47, "rotation_up": 46.68, "upward_expansion": 70.97, "deceleration": 62.39, "rotation_down": 26.17, "downward_expansion": 18.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.282666, 21.298291, 21.167081, 21.085663 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.184, "trend_reference": 20.967648, "distance_from_trend": 0.010318, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.870869, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015003, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.295711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.028974, "excess_performance": -0.035666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010318, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008349, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015003, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016792, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050572, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028974, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.876871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71, "relative_activity": 0.031316, "balance": 1.876871, "dry_up": 0.676936, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006725, "annualized_volatility": 0.053574, "from_high_reference": -0.120791, "from_low_reference": 0.046473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.967648, "fair_value_reference": 20.870869, "structural_low": 20.43, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.001188, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010476, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.036828, "worst_return": -0.12828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011825, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.060314, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.062669, "worst_return": -0.14465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003225, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.102614, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.080589, "worst_return": -0.135566, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.320596, "energy": 88.858613, "activity_lines": [ 21.386666, 21.304764, 21.137819, 21.051802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.233999, "volume": 1098, "typical_volume": 2479.9, "trend": 20.956388, "fair_value": 20.861431, "relative_strength": -3.630832, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.979213, "energy": 57.760148, "activity_lines": [ 21.336866, 21.308545, 21.15479, 21.070978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.184, "volume": 71, "typical_volume": 2267.2, "trend": 20.967648, "fair_value": 20.870869, "relative_strength": -6.295711, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.055809, "energy": 43.859703, "activity_lines": [ 21.282666, 21.298291, 21.167081, 21.085663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }