{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17cdff5e-a4f9-4dde-a17a-477409bef006", "symbol": "300241", "name": "Shenzhen Refond Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.557, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.937, "architecture_energy": 75.213, "architecture_maturity": 14.06, "architecture_confidence": 77.297, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.4, "rotation_up": 8.71, "upward_expansion": 17.08, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 76.86, "downward_expansion": 92.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.317333, 5.725485, 6.256529, 6.417196 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.51, "trend_reference": 6.488117, "distance_from_trend": -0.150755, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.312506, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.005253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101142, "excess_performance": -0.108542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338544, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.164535, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104958776, "relative_activity": 0.590306, "balance": 2.164535, "dry_up": 0.680246, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144895, "annualized_volatility": 0.563077, "from_high_reference": -0.356403, "from_low_reference": 0.213656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.488117, "fair_value_reference": 5.312506, "structural_low": 4.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.02559, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.018034, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.307927, "worst_return": -0.224586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026225, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.259424, "worst_return": -0.255629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031078, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049007, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.140999, "worst_return": -0.272942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.96, "volume": 197354287, "typical_volume": 240868556.4, "trend": 6.552117, "fair_value": 5.308187, "relative_strength": -13.781857, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.04768, "energy": 26.336308, "activity_lines": [ 6.439802, 6.742908, 6.839024, 6.754129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.01, "volume": 126874967, "typical_volume": 239420679.15, "trend": 6.52445, "fair_value": 5.308304, "relative_strength": -19.875959, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.017329, "energy": 56.761629, "activity_lines": [ 5.951781, 6.397922, 6.661817, 6.654638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.09, "volume": 127188908, "typical_volume": 223420846.75, "trend": 6.505117, "fair_value": 5.308551, "relative_strength": -18.453185, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.671406, "energy": 68.805746, "activity_lines": [ 5.566571, 6.106348, 6.499419, 6.562093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.24, "volume": 124778757, "typical_volume": 191346269.0, "trend": 6.490784, "fair_value": 5.309312, "relative_strength": -14.341719, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.40216, "energy": 78.284322, "activity_lines": [ 5.34, 5.875658, 6.359831, 6.480472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.51, "volume": 104958776, "typical_volume": 177803949.0, "trend": 6.488117, "fair_value": 5.312506, "relative_strength": -14.005253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.936832, "energy": 75.213499, "activity_lines": [ 5.317333, 5.725485, 6.256529, 6.417196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }