{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17ce8caa-4c90-4f60-867a-f8cb9dc5bbaa", "symbol": "SOLW", "name": "WisdomTree Physical Solana", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.138, "architecture_energy": 30.278, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 55.701, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.46, "rotation_up": 24.52, "upward_expansion": 9.74, "deceleration": 65.71, "rotation_down": 38.36, "downward_expansion": 66.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.425067, 8.4024, 8.571276, 8.807039 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.396, "trend_reference": 9.410033, "distance_from_trend": -0.107761, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.975083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.439335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.754161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022812, "excess_performance": -0.105695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107761, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.439335, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.547419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 780, "relative_activity": 0.556845, "balance": 2.547419, "dry_up": 0.467964, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070299, "annualized_volatility": 0.463132, "from_high_reference": -0.68448, "from_low_reference": 0.167084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.410033, "fair_value_reference": 14.975083, "structural_low": 7.194, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.097531, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.090151, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.455038, "worst_return": -0.43161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.35981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.305993, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.548301, "worst_return": -0.302679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.457695, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.36593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 8.324687, "worst_return": -0.443612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.227067, 8.403873, 8.791143, 9.290649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.85, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 2136.85, "trend": 10.167433, "fair_value": 14.828814, "relative_strength": -44.752639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.563591, "energy": 34.368369, "activity_lines": [ 8.536533, 8.437673, 8.775829, 9.193551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.417, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 2017.85, "trend": 9.985133, "fair_value": 14.86501, "relative_strength": -46.890872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.106379, "energy": 24.973814, "activity_lines": [ 8.591267, 8.3976, 8.719914, 9.080619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.516, "volume": 219, "typical_volume": 1617.2, "trend": 9.818267, "fair_value": 14.901808, "relative_strength": -45.236517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.573661, "energy": 25.592632, "activity_lines": [ 8.6132, 8.397018, 8.675205, 8.985837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.291, "volume": 1123, "typical_volume": 1374.75, "trend": 9.6401, "fair_value": 14.938625, "relative_strength": -45.722595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.066994, "energy": 26.357296, "activity_lines": [ 8.507467, 8.379255, 8.61459, 8.887303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.396, "volume": 780, "typical_volume": 1400.75, "trend": 9.410033, "fair_value": 14.975083, "relative_strength": -44.754161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.137665, "energy": 30.278194, "activity_lines": [ 8.425067, 8.4024, 8.571276, 8.807039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }