{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17d392ea-3fe6-4460-803e-cff572048521", "symbol": "EML", "name": "Emmerson PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.097, "architecture_energy": 67.49, "architecture_maturity": 27.527, "architecture_confidence": 90.131, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.85, "rotation_up": 11.74, "upward_expansion": 14.8, "deceleration": 37.66, "rotation_down": 73.53, "downward_expansion": 92.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.018387, 0.019392, 0.020468, 0.021429 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.022335, "distance_from_trend": -0.19409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.018306, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.339495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181818, "excess_performance": -0.233053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19409, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.173977, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1817177, "relative_activity": 0.463745, "balance": 0.173977, "dry_up": 0.779366, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154359, "annualized_volatility": 0.55626, "from_high_reference": -0.419355, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022335, "fair_value_reference": 0.018306, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.054837, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.084183, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.721154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.098787, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.115549, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.628205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.063532, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.123862, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.451613, "worst_return": -0.602564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"trend": 0.02275, "fair_value": 0.018435, "relative_strength": -4.841883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.325344, "energy": 26.229164, "activity_lines": [ 0.021183, 0.021192, 0.021986, 0.022524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.019, "volume": 5514029, "typical_volume": 4748647.6, "trend": 0.022683, "fair_value": 0.018416, "relative_strength": -14.491179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.316095, "energy": 37.278124, "activity_lines": [ 0.020467, 0.020752, 0.021595, 0.022282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.019, "volume": 2493128, "typical_volume": 4584766.7, "trend": 0.02255, "fair_value": 0.01838, "relative_strength": -15.329194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.465734, "energy": 50.113152, "activity_lines": [ 0.019867, 0.020385, 0.021255, 0.022044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01745, "volume": 2391390, "typical_volume": 4336803.0, "trend": 0.022435, "fair_value": 0.018341, "relative_strength": -22.832752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.214422, "energy": 66.206977, "activity_lines": [ 0.018883, 0.019799, 0.020812, 0.021715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 1817177, "typical_volume": 3918480.8, "trend": 0.022335, "fair_value": 0.018306, "relative_strength": -20.339495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.097442, "energy": 67.490209, "activity_lines": [ 0.018387, 0.019392, 0.020468, 0.021429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }