{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17dab4fc-7d82-416c-8b01-289287ebee7e", "symbol": "GOL3L", "name": "SG ETC DAILY LONG +3X GOLD FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.129, "architecture_energy": 63.312, "architecture_maturity": 81.255, "architecture_confidence": 94.587, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.53, "rotation_up": 29.35, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.08, "rotation_down": 55.99, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.473999, 97.621091, 110.45681, 125.653226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 110.169998, "trend_reference": 147.004, "distance_from_trend": -0.250565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.028204, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.449067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.489136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.416812, "excess_performance": -0.587704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.250565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.449067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.69505, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.416812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.743875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 528, "relative_activity": 1.154982, "balance": 0.743875, "dry_up": 0.578585, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102429, "annualized_volatility": 0.694175, "from_high_reference": -0.60866, "from_low_reference": 0.523158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.004, "fair_value_reference": 76.028204, "structural_low": 87.139999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022151, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012695, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.129833, "worst_return": -0.075997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.02512, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02512, "worst_return": 0.02512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.239035, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239035, "worst_return": 0.239035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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135.921355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 93.010002, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 634.2, "trend": 150.397333, "fair_value": 75.090448, "relative_strength": -39.151111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.981342, "energy": 77.548957, "activity_lines": [ 93.965335, 99.334183, 115.742192, 132.081312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.269997, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 473.05, "trend": 148.678, "fair_value": 75.492339, "relative_strength": -41.969007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.360039, "energy": 77.639288, "activity_lines": [ 92.032667, 96.191637, 111.840334, 128.137613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.169998, "volume": 528, "typical_volume": 457.15, "trend": 147.004, "fair_value": 76.028204, "relative_strength": -30.489136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.12852, "energy": 63.312033, "activity_lines": [ 97.473999, 97.621091, 110.45681, 125.653226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }