{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17df1dd7-eb4c-4621-98ab-754ce0599567", "symbol": "HEDJ", "name": "WisdomTree Europe Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.038, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.02, "architecture_energy": 63.671, "architecture_maturity": 57.743, "architecture_confidence": 54.357, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.54, "rotation_up": 47.79, "upward_expansion": 76.17, "deceleration": 69.51, "rotation_down": 29.96, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.856333, 27.834671, 27.332832, 26.87578 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.84, "trend_reference": 26.421093, "distance_from_trend": 0.053704, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.656884, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176824, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.105556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071181, "excess_performance": -0.099711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053704, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013328, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071181, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.988909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.988909, "dry_up": 2.542304, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009856, "annualized_volatility": 0.142862, "from_high_reference": -0.010485, "from_low_reference": 0.171945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.421093, "fair_value_reference": 23.656884, "structural_low": 24.555, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.000949, "positive_rate": 0.513514, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.00275, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.082706, "worst_return": -0.088868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011086, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.015867, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.13145, "worst_return": -0.054304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019385, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.044805, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.182184, "worst_return": -0.086892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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9377, "typical_volume": 1567.05, "trend": 26.192321, "fair_value": 23.502608, "relative_strength": -4.458279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.115971, "energy": 67.76246, "activity_lines": [ 27.927014, 27.679095, 26.923515, 26.573361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.84, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 1694.6, "trend": 26.281593, "fair_value": 23.554257, "relative_strength": -4.08886, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.176577, "energy": 65.962644, "activity_lines": [ 27.91756, 27.750408, 27.068263, 26.679663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1694.6, "trend": 26.358593, "fair_value": 23.605266, "relative_strength": -4.53257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.75732, "energy": 65.162291, "activity_lines": [ 27.894, 27.798539, 27.204702, 26.780205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1669.45, "trend": 26.421093, "fair_value": 23.656884, "relative_strength": -7.105556, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.02039, "energy": 63.670781, "activity_lines": [ 27.856333, 27.834671, 27.332832, 26.87578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }