{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17e23488-d980-477e-89ed-1a8b1aa24b06", "symbol": "HFWA", "name": "Heritage Financial Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.34, "architecture_energy": 42.797, "architecture_maturity": 46.989, "architecture_confidence": 74.228, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.23, "rotation_up": 54.28, "upward_expansion": 78.75, "deceleration": 62.13, "rotation_down": 21.06, "downward_expansion": 5.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.658843, 29.482832, 28.678225, 28.030549 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.5, "trend_reference": 27.313066, "distance_from_trend": 0.080069, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.632208, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363707, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.131876, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.055616, "excess_performance": -0.131837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080069, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076397, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.363707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022235, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011319, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062056, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055616, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.061811, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2045399, "relative_activity": 1.328355, "balance": 1.061811, "dry_up": 1.576013, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055566, "annualized_volatility": 0.234087, "from_high_reference": -0.048136, "from_low_reference": 0.409064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.313066, "fair_value_reference": 21.632208, "structural_low": 24.218332, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.007226, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.000888, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.149698, "worst_return": -0.11392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015124, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.056104, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.262823, "worst_return": -0.109428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036924, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.033038, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.208574, "worst_return": -0.114515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.388931, "energy": 68.451744, "activity_lines": [ 29.55806, 28.973236, 28.054344, 27.504918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.910826, "volume": 3221666, "typical_volume": 1573065.15, "trend": 26.91253, "fair_value": 21.469243, "relative_strength": 8.714209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.96416, "energy": 61.01102, "activity_lines": [ 29.772374, 29.254852, 28.311696, 27.711048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.484379, "volume": 2282693, "typical_volume": 1615872.15, "trend": 27.119575, "fair_value": 21.549078, "relative_strength": 6.359565, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.047905, "energy": 46.421884, "activity_lines": [ 29.711817, 29.388371, 28.505669, 27.876974 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.5, "volume": 2045399, "typical_volume": 1539798.55, "trend": 27.313066, "fair_value": 21.632208, "relative_strength": 1.131876, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.339844, "energy": 42.796517, "activity_lines": [ 29.658843, 29.482832, 28.678225, 28.030549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }