{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17e90df5-ff22-4563-9e67-f45abe0999c9", "symbol": "WRK", "name": "Wrkr Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.873, "architecture_energy": 88.265, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.007, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 11.73, "upward_expansion": 21.16, "deceleration": 37.43, "rotation_down": 81.2, "downward_expansion": 99.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.077333, 0.082818, 0.091048, 0.098333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.075, "trend_reference": 0.111033, "distance_from_trend": -0.324527, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.068375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.215511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.482759, "excess_performance": -0.546464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.324527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.739059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.382155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.405317, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.482759, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14505201, "relative_activity": 3.63511, "balance": 0.35312, "dry_up": 1.918424, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110769, "annualized_volatility": 0.468764, "from_high_reference": -0.571429, "from_low_reference": 0.056338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.111033, "fair_value_reference": 0.068375, "structural_low": 0.071, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.013097, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023684, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031122, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.282051, "worst_return": -0.356522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.157895, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.201347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.038462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.056559, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.325301, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.347826, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.021, "volume": 1087401, "typical_volume": 1103546.35, "trend": 0.022667, "fair_value": 0.024359, "relative_strength": -6.948762, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.279318, "energy": 68.641821, "activity_lines": [ 0.091467, 0.094309, 0.100748, 0.108316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.08, "volume": 5382558, "typical_volume": 3089850.85, "trend": 0.116733, "fair_value": 0.067343, "relative_strength": -31.647775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.700455, "energy": 84.810589, "activity_lines": [ 0.087, 0.091091, 0.098214, 0.10586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.08, "volume": 2405054, "typical_volume": 3099075.6, "trend": 0.1154, "fair_value": 0.067721, "relative_strength": -31.101905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.859, "energy": 86.726288, "activity_lines": [ 0.083867, 0.088509, 0.095943, 0.10349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.074, "volume": 8327578, "typical_volume": 3394337.6, "trend": 0.113533, "fair_value": 0.068035, "relative_strength": -37.494707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.567575, "energy": 90.907442, "activity_lines": [ 0.079867, 0.085382, 0.093338, 0.100819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.075, "volume": 14505201, "typical_volume": 3990306.1, "trend": 0.111033, "fair_value": 0.068375, "relative_strength": -38.215511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.87281, "energy": 88.26539, "activity_lines": [ 0.077333, 0.082818, 0.091048, 0.098333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }