{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17eb6cab-42ef-400d-8e5f-28de2e21bf62", "symbol": "OILU", "name": "SavvyLong Geared Crude Oil ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.556, "architecture_energy": 16.74, "architecture_maturity": 32.085, "architecture_confidence": 56.343, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.3, "rotation_up": 44.12, "upward_expansion": 58.0, "deceleration": 70.56, "rotation_down": 16.46, "downward_expansion": 19.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.019999, 40.898545, 44.513952, 44.209161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.57, "trend_reference": 40.479, "distance_from_trend": -0.071864, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.379639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.9075, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.927655, "excess_performance": 0.807234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372188, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.790862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099075, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.790949, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.927655, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.328457, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 334414, "relative_activity": 0.467664, "balance": 0.328457, "dry_up": 0.395695, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.241744, "annualized_volatility": 1.338482, "from_high_reference": -0.453527, "from_low_reference": 1.509686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.479, "fair_value_reference": 27.379639, "structural_low": 18.809999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.213103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173195, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 25.879999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 28.77, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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"trend": 38.815666, "fair_value": 27.030864, "relative_strength": 58.683063, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.125983, "energy": 18.33937, "activity_lines": [ 41.884666, 41.374545, 45.697571, 43.925397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.439999, "volume": 473385, "typical_volume": 816224.95, "trend": 39.796, "fair_value": 27.255366, "relative_strength": 37.878564, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.302764, "energy": 17.139428, "activity_lines": [ 44.205999, 41.738363, 45.479142, 44.352774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.57, "volume": 334414, "typical_volume": 715072.85, "trend": 40.479, "fair_value": 27.379639, "relative_strength": 9.9075, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.555981, "energy": 16.73959, "activity_lines": [ 43.019999, 40.898545, 44.513952, 44.209161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }