{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17ed8bc5-eb57-455d-9dec-81b27fbcf558", "symbol": "AGE", "name": "Alligator Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.959, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.739, "architecture_energy": 32.71, "architecture_maturity": 24.88, "architecture_confidence": 55.628, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.51, "rotation_up": 47.04, "upward_expansion": 70.19, "deceleration": 69.03, "rotation_down": 22.92, "downward_expansion": 10.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0498, 0.049473, 0.046086, 0.045009 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.044, "trend_reference": 0.043967, "distance_from_trend": 0.000758, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.042212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.101388, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.189189, "excess_performance": 0.125484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000758, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042369, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.161014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189189, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24265, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144612479, "relative_activity": 2.329418, "balance": 0.24265, "dry_up": 1.359517, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160839, "annualized_volatility": 0.761016, "from_high_reference": -0.241379, "from_low_reference": 1.315789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.043967, "fair_value_reference": 0.042212, "structural_low": 0.033, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.104643, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.119267, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.293103, "worst_return": -0.37, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038732, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.209302, "worst_return": -0.504762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048764, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058928, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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58623477.0, "trend": 0.043533, "fair_value": 0.042173, "relative_strength": 43.186523, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.144152, "energy": 68.765863, "activity_lines": [ 0.0528, 0.049909, 0.046067, 0.044978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.044, "volume": 144612479, "typical_volume": 62080947.05, "trend": 0.043967, "fair_value": 0.042212, "relative_strength": 16.101388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.739162, "energy": 32.710167, "activity_lines": [ 0.0498, 0.049473, 0.046086, 0.045009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }