{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17ee36a9-7f25-4549-847c-620aa175b883", "symbol": "DVYE", "name": "ISHARES INC EMERGING MARKETS DIV ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.592, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.153, "architecture_energy": 24.041, "architecture_maturity": 11.474, "architecture_confidence": 55.768, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.27, "rotation_up": 58.24, "upward_expansion": 39.42, "deceleration": 37.82, "rotation_down": 17.67, "downward_expansion": 16.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.944, 33.499829, 33.549953, 33.582775 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.24, "trend_reference": 33.551768, "distance_from_trend": 0.020513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.069542, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.92672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012893, "excess_performance": -0.112732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020513, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030059, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012893, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.80689, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 472462, "relative_activity": 0.56247, "balance": 0.80689, "dry_up": 0.892091, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029258, "annualized_volatility": 0.154152, "from_high_reference": -0.031475, "from_low_reference": 0.236593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.551768, "fair_value_reference": 26.069542, "structural_low": 31.855, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028122, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.020959, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.090315, "worst_return": -0.028902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063618, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.031067, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.067706, "worst_return": 0.016448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082278, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.011349, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164894, "worst_return": -0.193741, "sufficient": false }, { 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33.316402, 33.608566, 33.474874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.16, "volume": 765681, "typical_volume": 996053.85, "trend": 33.036342, "fair_value": 25.61471, "relative_strength": -6.193652, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.360205, "energy": 41.483799, "activity_lines": [ 32.658705, 33.046389, 33.463505, 33.422912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.25, "volume": 800423, "typical_volume": 984555.9, "trend": 33.139745, "fair_value": 25.703007, "relative_strength": -4.293758, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.198146, "energy": 39.097486, "activity_lines": [ 32.79051, 33.017409, 33.429989, 33.436697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.15, "volume": 1219316, "typical_volume": 958725.6, "trend": 33.237875, "fair_value": 25.790614, "relative_strength": -3.100654, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.522871, "energy": 32.196413, "activity_lines": [ 32.861333, 32.991315, 33.391409, 33.437358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.79, "volume": 728401, "typical_volume": 911672.4, "trend": 33.344593, "fair_value": 25.878331, "relative_strength": -0.712003, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.859338, "energy": 4.742745, "activity_lines": [ 33.194, 33.115018, 33.420211, 33.472979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.26, "volume": 577168, "typical_volume": 868305.05, "trend": 33.453579, "fair_value": 25.973103, "relative_strength": -0.498985, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.794975, "energy": 18.786806, "activity_lines": [ 33.638, 33.314684, 33.489781, 33.532038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.24, "volume": 472462, "typical_volume": 839977.8, "trend": 33.551768, "fair_value": 26.069542, "relative_strength": -3.92672, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.152595, "energy": 24.040725, "activity_lines": [ 33.944, 33.499829, 33.549953, 33.582775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }