{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17fc7336-8d30-469b-b30a-b47017b6babe", "symbol": "STSL", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Tesla ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.886, "architecture_energy": 68.826, "architecture_maturity": 9.755, "architecture_confidence": 66.786, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.46, "rotation_up": 73.21, "upward_expansion": 87.95, "deceleration": 45.22, "rotation_down": 10.9, "downward_expansion": 16.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.542, 18.509773, 17.987381, 17.832575 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.135, "trend_reference": 17.444, "distance_from_trend": 0.096939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.715852, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.478835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.19474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.164992, "excess_performance": 0.099943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096939, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000752, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.478835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223053, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.659592, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10661, "relative_activity": 0.889907, "balance": 1.659592, "dry_up": 0.682476, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086233, "annualized_volatility": 0.515771, "from_high_reference": -0.258477, "from_low_reference": 0.323306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.444, "fair_value_reference": 36.715852, "structural_low": 15.17205, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008446, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007427, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.18526, "worst_return": -0.418877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099442, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.128277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.289638, "worst_return": -0.271108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.22158, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.240347, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.212955, "worst_return": -0.249383, "sufficient": false }, { 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16.689, 16.624227, 17.248536, 17.193903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.3175, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 11424.35, "trend": 16.996833, "fair_value": 37.243813, "relative_strength": -14.199175, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.18211, "energy": 8.299865, "activity_lines": [ 16.950167, 16.7295, 17.232131, 17.214833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.92, "volume": 18885, "typical_volume": 12230.1, "trend": 17.155333, "fair_value": 37.07348, "relative_strength": 3.281616, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.081709, "energy": 40.127729, "activity_lines": [ 18.325, 17.480455, 17.557762, 17.467941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.98, "volume": 3155, "typical_volume": 11978.55, "trend": 17.307833, "fair_value": 36.91205, "relative_strength": 3.285719, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.724086, "energy": 70.479952, "activity_lines": [ 19.3755, 18.195318, 17.86925, 17.714693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.135, "volume": 10661, "typical_volume": 11979.9, "trend": 17.444, "fair_value": 36.715852, "relative_strength": -5.19474, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.885642, "energy": 68.825733, "activity_lines": [ 19.542, 18.509773, 17.987381, 17.832575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }