{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17fd5d24-d0fe-45fe-aee6-74539a000d32", "symbol": "HYFA", "name": "Invesco US High Yield Fallen Angels UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.182, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.477, "architecture_energy": 44.701, "architecture_maturity": 56.685, "architecture_confidence": 56.038, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.35, "rotation_up": 47.13, "upward_expansion": 71.33, "deceleration": 62.5, "rotation_down": 25.91, "downward_expansion": 19.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.670133, 18.681529, 18.504699, 18.414484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.681999, "trend_reference": 18.347403, "distance_from_trend": 0.018237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.768207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051428, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.56892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019684, "excess_performance": -0.151208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018237, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005529, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051428, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025835, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019684, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.73945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29507, "relative_activity": 1.227405, "balance": 2.73945, "dry_up": 1.339166, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009177, "annualized_volatility": 0.050188, "from_high_reference": -0.012579, "from_low_reference": 0.063707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.347403, "fair_value_reference": 17.768207, "structural_low": 17.563103, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.358549, "energy": 88.298959, "activity_lines": [ 18.754133, 18.626314, 18.405491, 18.352206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.722, "volume": 13326, "typical_volume": 24734.75, "trend": 18.333528, "fair_value": 17.734314, "relative_strength": -9.872414, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.103708, "energy": 84.905635, "activity_lines": [ 18.747733, 18.667695, 18.446112, 18.378448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.554001, "volume": 50390, "typical_volume": 24504.1, "trend": 18.343906, "fair_value": 17.751052, "relative_strength": -10.931639, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.414136, "energy": 52.928129, "activity_lines": [ 18.680133, 18.666224, 18.469686, 18.392672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.681999, "volume": 29507, "typical_volume": 24040.15, "trend": 18.347403, "fair_value": 17.768207, "relative_strength": -12.56892, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.476718, "energy": 44.701069, "activity_lines": [ 18.670133, 18.681529, 18.504699, 18.414484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }