{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17fe89be-7895-4b4b-8431-589768cb2812", "symbol": "PBDE", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 20 ETF - DECEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.658, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.9, "architecture_energy": 60.651, "architecture_maturity": 41.163, "architecture_confidence": 79.621, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.18, "rotation_up": 59.76, "upward_expansion": 82.53, "deceleration": 57.8, "rotation_down": 23.98, "downward_expansion": 9.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.1651, 31.04654, 30.848021, 30.536853 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.4663, "trend_reference": 30.17906, "distance_from_trend": 0.042653, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.752097, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.260765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060021, "excess_performance": -0.065604, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042653, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014859, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060021, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.269147, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47110, "relative_activity": 1.117532, "balance": 3.269147, "dry_up": 1.140554, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011847, "annualized_volatility": 0.056935, "from_high_reference": -0.020047, "from_low_reference": 0.132289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.17906, "fair_value_reference": 27.752097, "structural_low": 28.57, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001786, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.001496, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.01702, "worst_return": -0.025255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.027994, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028284, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.048894, "worst_return": 0.007094, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.056335, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056935, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.056335, "worst_return": 0.056335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -3.260213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.678579, "energy": 53.173396, "activity_lines": [ 31.00826, 30.942915, 30.747084, 30.449921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.4663, "volume": 47110, "typical_volume": 42155.4, "trend": 30.17906, "fair_value": 27.752097, "relative_strength": -5.260765, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.900367, "energy": 60.651496, "activity_lines": [ 31.1651, 31.04654, 30.848021, 30.536853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }