{ "ticker": { "uuid": "17ff3aaa-c1f3-493c-89d8-b8f34e01d390", "symbol": "601598", "name": "Sinotrans Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.818, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.715, "architecture_energy": 42.711, "architecture_maturity": 31.171, "architecture_confidence": 90.351, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.95, "rotation_up": 69.49, "upward_expansion": 42.38, "deceleration": 43.5, "rotation_down": 16.71, "downward_expansion": 19.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.201333, 5.865508, 5.820698, 5.848495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.47, "trend_reference": 5.884145, "distance_from_trend": 0.099565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.197781, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.589051, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08194, "excess_performance": 0.125144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099565, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031206, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077278, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085891, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08194, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.916732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116077143, "relative_activity": 1.541305, "balance": 0.916732, "dry_up": 1.368259, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059684, "annualized_volatility": 0.275416, "from_high_reference": -0.166866, "from_low_reference": 0.279622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.884145, "fair_value_reference": 5.197781, "structural_low": 5.056181, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015534, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015342, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.056568, "worst_return": -0.042751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.089969, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.053917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200384, "worst_return": -0.020446, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.03448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158179, "worst_return": -0.089219, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.476673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.350749, "energy": 14.851553, "activity_lines": [ 5.601667, 5.547234, 5.688549, 5.765868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.54, "volume": 123220796, "typical_volume": 73142476.85, "trend": 5.870478, "fair_value": 5.181691, "relative_strength": 13.113066, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.321012, "energy": 29.566926, "activity_lines": [ 5.961333, 5.717049, 5.759195, 5.809816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.47, "volume": 116077143, "typical_volume": 75310944.65, "trend": 5.884145, "fair_value": 5.197781, "relative_strength": 8.589051, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.714542, "energy": 42.71143, "activity_lines": [ 6.201333, 5.865508, 5.820698, 5.848495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }