{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1802672a-7ce4-40b5-a72c-3cb0f835a57a", "symbol": "M4M", "name": "Macro Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.601, "architecture_energy": 32.296, "architecture_maturity": 34.077, "architecture_confidence": 88.838, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.04, "rotation_up": 21.98, "upward_expansion": 8.4, "deceleration": 40.53, "rotation_down": 49.38, "downward_expansion": 74.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0062, 0.0064, 0.006507, 0.006575 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0055, "trend_reference": 0.006883, "distance_from_trend": -0.200969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.010958, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.498099, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.317349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3125, "excess_performance": -0.376206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.498099, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.03903, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3850563, "relative_activity": 0.317739, "balance": 4.03903, "dry_up": 0.913774, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195804, "annualized_volatility": 0.813633, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006883, "fair_value_reference": 0.010958, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.08125, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.07169, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.170673, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.152396, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.229167, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.222248, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 5.0, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.318182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125, 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"typical_volume": 11363800.15, "trend": 0.007067, "fair_value": 0.010869, "relative_strength": -7.682569, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.075522, "energy": 22.246059, "activity_lines": [ 0.006433, 0.006618, 0.006574, 0.006749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.007, "volume": 18818759, "typical_volume": 11797250.65, "trend": 0.007067, "fair_value": 0.010894, "relative_strength": -0.193388, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.410779, "energy": 19.265139, "activity_lines": [ 0.006533, 0.0067, 0.006617, 0.006745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 5538150, "typical_volume": 11869194.65, "trend": 0.007067, "fair_value": 0.01092, "relative_strength": -0.170233, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.358308, "energy": 11.029709, "activity_lines": [ 0.0067, 0.006764, 0.00666, 0.006741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 16087276, "typical_volume": 12135134.65, "trend": 0.007, "fair_value": 0.010939, "relative_strength": -16.332061, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.224272, "energy": 16.727924, "activity_lines": [ 0.006533, 0.006627, 0.006605, 0.006672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0055, "volume": 3850563, "typical_volume": 12118626.25, "trend": 0.006883, "fair_value": 0.010958, "relative_strength": -25.317349, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.600706, "energy": 32.295917, "activity_lines": [ 0.0062, 0.0064, 0.006507, 0.006575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }