{ "ticker": { "uuid": "180dfa7b-6159-4a5c-a372-c7afca92bfcd", "symbol": "SPXI", "name": "BetaPro S&P 500 Daily Inverse ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.413, "architecture_energy": 56.191, "architecture_maturity": 63.844, "architecture_confidence": 95.861, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.15, "rotation_up": 28.2, "upward_expansion": 8.49, "deceleration": 57.71, "rotation_down": 52.84, "downward_expansion": 81.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.650667, 8.688182, 8.771238, 8.955419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.44, "trend_reference": 9.157167, "distance_from_trend": -0.078318, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.047083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235997, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.380237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.100213, "excess_performance": -0.220634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078318, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028417, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00576, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005542, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523116, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200100, "relative_activity": 1.152882, "balance": 0.523116, "dry_up": 0.473886, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023195, "annualized_volatility": 0.147371, "from_high_reference": -0.182171, "from_low_reference": 0.00716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.157167, "fair_value_reference": 11.047083, "structural_low": 8.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.010314, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.023773, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.079114, "worst_return": -0.059984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.031614, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.064038, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.074586, "worst_return": -0.07734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.073765, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.142211, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.160428, "worst_return": -0.109329, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024845, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056537, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043721, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-27", 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195830.0, "trend": 9.2305, "fair_value": 11.137981, "relative_strength": -16.849785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.762509, "energy": 56.771576, "activity_lines": [ 8.708667, 8.727909, 8.8915, 9.060548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.83, "volume": 65100, "typical_volume": 188715.0, "trend": 9.212167, "fair_value": 11.110224, "relative_strength": -15.798702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.099558, "energy": 47.718373, "activity_lines": [ 8.745333, 8.744545, 8.862524, 9.03471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.73, "volume": 22300, "typical_volume": 178905.0, "trend": 9.186833, "fair_value": 11.079776, "relative_strength": -15.676837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.71694, "energy": 44.883423, "activity_lines": [ 8.74, 8.742636, 8.828048, 9.003602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.44, "volume": 200100, "typical_volume": 173565.0, "trend": 9.157167, "fair_value": 11.047083, "relative_strength": -20.380237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.413081, "energy": 56.190622, "activity_lines": [ 8.650667, 8.688182, 8.771238, 8.955419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }