{ "ticker": { "uuid": "180dfe91-e12a-43a0-b92e-36e3291d292f", "symbol": "CVSA", "name": "Covista Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.064, "architecture_energy": 31.261, "architecture_maturity": 59.933, "architecture_confidence": 77.151, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.85, "rotation_up": 45.6, "upward_expansion": 71.78, "deceleration": 85.4, "rotation_down": 28.8, "downward_expansion": 12.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.914667, 126.759091, 124.743476, 121.099871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 140.98, "trend_reference": 116.521, "distance_from_trend": 0.209911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 91.10391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.547464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.355347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.349349, "excess_performance": 0.223724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.209911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.547464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063553, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058257, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.349349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.614141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2039960, "relative_activity": 1.297695, "balance": 1.614141, "dry_up": 1.191388, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089569, "annualized_volatility": 0.479908, "from_high_reference": -0.097785, "from_low_reference": 0.621019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.521, "fair_value_reference": 91.10391, "structural_low": 90.47, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.015052, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.004314, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.219049, "worst_return": -0.389619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.072175, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.02663, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.302213, "worst_return": -0.293165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.174375, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.156903, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.429185, "worst_return": -0.237689, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 115.84, "volume": 1441434, "typical_volume": 1611416.6, "trend": 114.928, "fair_value": 89.971538, "relative_strength": -8.862316, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.265603, "energy": 14.118817, "activity_lines": [ 122.079333, 123.483455, 122.295857, 118.822796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.85, "volume": 1679914, "typical_volume": 1618762.1, "trend": 115.607333, "fair_value": 90.483013, "relative_strength": -2.626295, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.89112, "energy": 16.320906, "activity_lines": [ 122.219333, 123.652182, 122.798571, 119.462925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.98, "volume": 2039960, "typical_volume": 1571987.6, "trend": 116.521, "fair_value": 91.10391, "relative_strength": 6.355347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.064019, "energy": 31.260607, "activity_lines": [ 127.914667, 126.759091, 124.743476, 121.099871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }