{ "ticker": { "uuid": "181250a7-1001-43cb-95b9-482c45d955bb", "symbol": "BIOT", "name": "L&G Pharma Breakthrough UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.561, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.28, "architecture_energy": 37.952, "architecture_maturity": 64.474, "architecture_confidence": 41.886, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 41.34, "upward_expansion": 67.42, "deceleration": 65.45, "rotation_down": 25.87, "downward_expansion": 17.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.727867, 12.751745, 12.420924, 12.199622 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.762, "trend_reference": 11.9548, "distance_from_trend": 0.067521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.182667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253306, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.770236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108968, "excess_performance": -0.061924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070083, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015809, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108968, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3898, "relative_activity": 0.617075, "balance": 0.442049, "dry_up": 0.81088, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034116, "annualized_volatility": 0.184544, "from_high_reference": -0.073337, "from_low_reference": 0.306645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.9548, "fair_value_reference": 10.182667, "structural_low": 10.786, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.001132, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.02407, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.070825, "worst_return": -0.148465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025627, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056397, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.08807, "worst_return": -0.112124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004742, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.124165, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.073004, "worst_return": -0.123713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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11.755382, 11.695724, 11.68037 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.086, "volume": 127, "typical_volume": 5945.75, "trend": 11.701067, "fair_value": 10.046974, "relative_strength": -8.734262, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.298227, "energy": 32.249424, "activity_lines": [ 11.837333, 11.8104, 11.738295, 11.706245 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.89, "volume": 745, "typical_volume": 5435.2, "trend": 11.731667, "fair_value": 10.065981, "relative_strength": 0.168613, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.739284, "energy": 73.439204, "activity_lines": [ 12.200667, 12.006145, 11.854676, 11.782951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.41, "volume": 544, "typical_volume": 5319.4, "trend": 11.781533, "fair_value": 10.089333, "relative_strength": 0.976551, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.216662, "energy": 93.834494, "activity_lines": [ 12.661867, 12.281491, 12.014, 11.89123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.17, "volume": 10976, "typical_volume": 5740.85, "trend": 11.8326, "fair_value": 10.11191, "relative_strength": -0.57821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.442364, "energy": 91.643138, "activity_lines": [ 12.9376, 12.481236, 12.141467, 11.980809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.912, "volume": 4039, "typical_volume": 5801.25, "trend": 11.868867, "fair_value": 10.130744, "relative_strength": -1.242043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.740101, "energy": 87.766335, "activity_lines": [ 13.0224, 12.609164, 12.23761, 12.050447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.91, "volume": 4651, "typical_volume": 5958.9, "trend": 11.906467, "fair_value": 10.148295, "relative_strength": -1.214181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.566497, "energy": 87.176786, "activity_lines": [ 13.027867, 12.717055, 12.328114, 12.117617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.346, "volume": 7901, "typical_volume": 6212.6, "trend": 11.930467, "fair_value": 10.164141, "relative_strength": -6.135507, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.116877, "energy": 52.559597, "activity_lines": [ 12.7904, 12.701927, 12.357219, 12.145974 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.762, "volume": 3898, "typical_volume": 6316.9, "trend": 11.9548, "fair_value": 10.182667, "relative_strength": -5.770236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.279996, "energy": 37.952079, "activity_lines": [ 12.727867, 12.751745, 12.420924, 12.199622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }