{ "ticker": { "uuid": "181644fc-0732-41f6-a7fe-d81ca3bef132", "symbol": "OEC", "name": "Ops eCom S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.017, "architecture_energy": 64.717, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 29.62, "upward_expansion": 12.39, "deceleration": 48.39, "rotation_down": 53.55, "downward_expansion": 85.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.02368, 0.024531, 0.035514, 0.046981 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0234, "trend_reference": 0.06605, "distance_from_trend": -0.645723, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.324744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.927943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -83.74531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.79292, "excess_performance": -0.963812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.645723, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.365311, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.927943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.837453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.79292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.219294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.219294, "dry_up": 1.431999, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.364892, "annualized_volatility": 2.240437, "from_high_reference": -0.908235, "from_low_reference": 0.671429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.06605, "fair_value_reference": 0.324744, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 57, "median_return": -0.054545, "positive_rate": 0.298246, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.06637, "regime_survival": 0.929825, "best_return": 0.518006, "worst_return": -0.467871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.123727, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.173732, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.46049, "worst_return": -0.559322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.292902, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.399096, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.048571, "worst_return": -0.878333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.335955, "relative_strength": -82.556202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.927153, "energy": 76.443648, "activity_lines": [ 0.0254, 0.029404, 0.043676, 0.056676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0202, "volume": 3256696, "typical_volume": 925036.0, "trend": 0.07239, "fair_value": 0.332097, "relative_strength": -86.477439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.659422, "energy": 82.443169, "activity_lines": [ 0.023613, 0.026851, 0.040471, 0.053095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0234, "volume": 598622, "typical_volume": 912017.3, "trend": 0.06917, "fair_value": 0.328312, "relative_strength": -83.870103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.180737, "energy": 63.97544, "activity_lines": [ 0.02356, 0.025476, 0.037885, 0.049934 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0234, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 912017.3, "trend": 0.06605, "fair_value": 0.324744, "relative_strength": -83.74531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.016686, "energy": 64.71692, "activity_lines": [ 0.02368, 0.024531, 0.035514, 0.046981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }