{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18171051-8cea-4cd4-9153-715e2bf479e5", "symbol": "600507", "name": "Fangda Special Steel Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.878, "architecture_energy": 31.359, "architecture_maturity": 92.136, "architecture_confidence": 81.784, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.99, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 22.66, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 30.72, "downward_expansion": 61.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.364667, 4.271818, 4.496231, 4.824205 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.37, "trend_reference": 5.228546, "distance_from_trend": -0.164204, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.527945, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.920607, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.295909, "excess_performance": -0.252705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164204, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084761, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034882, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110846, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.295909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.55391, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133864045, "relative_activity": 0.982937, "balance": 0.55391, "dry_up": 1.368176, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08998, "annualized_volatility": 0.449639, "from_high_reference": -0.38261, "from_low_reference": 0.114796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.228546, "fair_value_reference": 4.527945, "structural_low": 3.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.00149, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003389, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.200549, "worst_return": -0.099291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.027015, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.046857, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.06087, "worst_return": -0.175532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.088406, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.090928, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.039261, "worst_return": -0.195035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.068667, 4.258145, 4.740244, 5.071329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.32, "volume": 177871030, "typical_volume": 130548614.7, "trend": 5.352097, "fair_value": 4.526468, "relative_strength": -16.471445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.183418, "energy": 63.469777, "activity_lines": [ 4.142, 4.231452, 4.656506, 5.002333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.26, "volume": 234691173, "typical_volume": 132346430.95, "trend": 5.307963, "fair_value": 4.526246, "relative_strength": -18.344161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.584619, "energy": 55.422616, "activity_lines": [ 4.193333, 4.214743, 4.579458, 4.931875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.54, "volume": 198889390, "typical_volume": 135897427.65, "trend": 5.270928, "fair_value": 4.5277, "relative_strength": -12.9354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.08842, "energy": 40.976445, "activity_lines": [ 4.326667, 4.258909, 4.541219, 4.882329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.37, "volume": 133864045, "typical_volume": 136187781.7, "trend": 5.228546, "fair_value": 4.527945, "relative_strength": -17.920607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.878058, "energy": 31.358847, "activity_lines": [ 4.364667, 4.271818, 4.496231, 4.824205 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }