{ "ticker": { "uuid": "181a6171-0309-49a3-a2b3-7c30d9245c7f", "symbol": "2221", "name": "New Concepts Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.144, "architecture_energy": 51.921, "architecture_maturity": 59.568, "architecture_confidence": 86.714, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 17.4, "upward_expansion": 7.5, "deceleration": 56.84, "rotation_down": 64.94, "downward_expansion": 83.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.627, 0.657455, 0.72919, 0.786753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.635, "trend_reference": 0.857833, "distance_from_trend": -0.259763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.905737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.666796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.028314, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.309783, "excess_performance": -0.276201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.666796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.309783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.677773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2549600, "relative_activity": 4.366636, "balance": 0.677773, "dry_up": 1.47016, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182919, "annualized_volatility": 0.396115, "from_high_reference": -0.603125, "from_low_reference": 3.703704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.857833, "fair_value_reference": 1.905737, "structural_low": 0.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.108889, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.087823, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.108108, "worst_return": -0.415789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.163934, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.228934, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.526829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051546, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.141992, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.488889, "worst_return": -0.687097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.232323, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.213333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.733333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.674, 0.713091, 0.788095, 0.837441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.61, "volume": 612000, "typical_volume": 493662.0, "trend": 0.884333, "fair_value": 1.972692, "relative_strength": -31.560344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.045607, "energy": 61.976511, "activity_lines": [ 0.644667, 0.687818, 0.765905, 0.819054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.62, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 478002.0, "trend": 0.871333, "fair_value": 1.940769, "relative_strength": -32.628282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.865747, "energy": 58.743729, "activity_lines": [ 0.630667, 0.669455, 0.746048, 0.802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.635, "volume": 2549600, "typical_volume": 583882.0, "trend": 0.857833, "fair_value": 1.905737, "relative_strength": -30.028314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.14388, "energy": 51.921095, "activity_lines": [ 0.627, 0.657455, 0.72919, 0.786753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }