{ "ticker": { "uuid": "18213fe8-c0a8-442d-954a-2765c1c9eccd", "symbol": "600958", "name": "Orient Securities Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.226, "architecture_energy": 30.623, "architecture_maturity": 63.58, "architecture_confidence": 85.024, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.27, "rotation_up": 19.77, "upward_expansion": 2.84, "deceleration": 55.1, "rotation_down": 46.93, "downward_expansion": 73.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.034681, 9.072753, 9.165298, 9.277814 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.08, "trend_reference": 9.528837, "distance_from_trend": -0.047103, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.375733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.015874, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.112414, "excess_performance": -0.069211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052831, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100159, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07201, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.819881, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247011748, "relative_activity": 1.001887, "balance": 0.819881, "dry_up": 1.214348, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051452, "annualized_volatility": 0.166981, "from_high_reference": -0.256956, "from_low_reference": 0.036089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.528837, "fair_value_reference": 9.375733, "structural_low": 8.763724, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.007508, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003279, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.12956, "worst_return": -0.137512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010051, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.338812, "worst_return": -0.24284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109603, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.03267, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.344496, "worst_return": -0.2576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.379006, "relative_strength": -10.376991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.211875, "energy": 39.859942, "activity_lines": [ 8.977742, 9.073485, 9.184251, 9.340266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.19, "volume": 397106284, "typical_volume": 247415273.1, "trend": 9.589504, "fair_value": 9.377539, "relative_strength": -6.921732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.965236, "energy": 34.434816, "activity_lines": [ 9.024735, 9.079574, 9.178655, 9.310685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.08, "volume": 247011748, "typical_volume": 246546618.9, "trend": 9.528837, "fair_value": 9.375733, "relative_strength": -10.015874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.22644, "energy": 30.623226, "activity_lines": [ 9.034681, 9.072753, 9.165298, 9.277814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }