{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "1823eb7c-47c0-497c-a03c-267a02ba2292",
    "symbol": "CHH",
    "name": "Choice Hotels International Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 84.306,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 21.57,
    "architecture_energy": 10.203,
    "architecture_maturity": 46.411,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.457,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.92,
        "rotation_up": 30.6,
        "upward_expansion": 56.92,
        "deceleration": 78.87,
        "rotation_down": 26.14,
        "downward_expansion": 18.25
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        109.23895
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 106.66,
    "trend_reference": 107.964664,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.012084,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 118.371979,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098942,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -9.849951,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.021248,
    "excess_performance": -0.146872,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012084,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053174,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.098942,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007182,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0985,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044752,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021248,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.775488,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3495654,
      "relative_activity": 1.144814,
      "balance": 0.775488,
      "dry_up": 0.967298,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.072035,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.351738,
      "from_high_reference": -0.138588,
      "from_low_reference": 0.276588
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    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 107.964664,
      "fair_value_reference": 118.371979,
      "structural_low": 93.51866,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": -0.005446,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001648,
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        "worst_return": -0.10706,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.064531,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "fair_value": 118.796029,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 3035128.9,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 3065208.3,
        "trend": 106.464642,
        "fair_value": 118.759319,
        "relative_strength": -7.667292,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 26.728609,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 111.84,
        "volume": 2666594,
        "typical_volume": 3058061.3,
        "trend": 106.979262,
        "fair_value": 118.699831,
        "relative_strength": -3.707617,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.809262,
        "energy": 23.56777,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 110.52,
        "volume": 3136777,
        "typical_volume": 3078765.95,
        "trend": 107.483355,
        "fair_value": 118.604108,
        "relative_strength": -3.530926,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.394032,
        "energy": 17.241379,
        "activity_lines": [
          111.085613,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 111.49,
        "volume": 2515436,
        "typical_volume": 3025988.45,
        "trend": 108.005281,
        "fair_value": 118.524464,
        "relative_strength": -3.092783,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.49105,
        "energy": 16.555183,
        "activity_lines": [
          111.124,
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          109.325743
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 106.66,
        "volume": 3495654,
        "typical_volume": 3053468.35,
        "trend": 107.964664,
        "fair_value": 118.371979,
        "relative_strength": -9.849951,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.570461,
        "energy": 10.202651,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}